Wintry further north and milder further south

Wintry further north and milder further south

Things are set to remain the same as we head into this weekend, with further wintry showers and cooler temperatures in the north, with milder and drier conditions further south. Friday day and into Friday night will feel chilly across northern parts of the UK, with further wintry showers falling as snow at times, across higher ground in parts of Scotland and northern England during today. It will be somewhat milder and windier in areas further south.

Saturday will also see wintry showers falling as snow across higher ground in northern parts of the UK, with some further showers of sleet and snow to some lower levels too. It will also be particularly windy in the far north, it will however remain relatively dry and mild for most areas further south.

Sunday and into Monday will see a somewhat chillier feel across most parts of the UK, and although areas further south are again likely to remain relatively dry, further wintry showers and cooler temperatures will continue across northern parts of the UK.

This is how I expect things to continue as we head into next week, with the possibility of some strong winds and snow showers to even lower levels than of late.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 20^th January 2012 (06:17) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Christmas Day Update + January and February 2012

The mild weather that the models predicted for Christmas Day won over in the end, dashing any hopes of a white Christmas across many parts of the UK. I generally don't tend to pay much attention to what the models are saying when I issue my forecasts, which has proven successful for me within my past forecasts to date, when the models and others organisations have proved inaccurate. (See Accuracy Page Here)

However, my chosen methods of analysis have proven to be unsuccessful on this occasion. This forecasting error will also be reflected upon in the final winter outcome and placed on the Exacta Weather accuracy page too. I will however continue to use the same methodology that has served me pretty well to date. I will also incorporate any new aspects of relevance from my future research into my forecasts, of which I will always offer as a FREE long range weather forecast/forecast to the general public.

I have had a large quantity of emails asking me if the last two winters were simply one-offs, due to the milder conditions that we have been experiencing so far this winter?

Unfortunately the last two winters were not just one-off situations. Now although this statement will take some time to come to realisation for the warmists of this world, whilst they revel in their milder Christmas conditions. The next two to three decades will see the UK experience much more frequent and harsher winters. This is also one particular area that I have strongly emphasised on since 2009, and that I will also continue to emphasise on more in any of my future updates and findings.

As I have stated many times before, I never expected December to be the worst month of this winter in meteorological terms. I have also stated that I expect these conditions to prevail as we head into January and February.

January certainly looks promising for this at present, in terms of some true cold and snow across Scotland and northern regions of the UK. Although once again there is likely to be some periods of moderation at times, and this is most likely to be reflected in any areas further south.

February should prevail further in comparison to January, and this is when I feel we are likely to see the most severe part of this winter. A cold start to spring 2012 is also possible, with some especially heavy and widespread snowfalls across Britain and parts of Ireland.

As I also stated in my 2^nd September 2011 update that we could expect “a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and WINTER.”

I also stated on the same date that “Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South.”

Although confidence is medium range with the factors in Italics at present, these could also prove to be a frequent feature at times within the remainder of winter, and this is why I included this within my update on the 2^nd September 2011 (before any other forecaster or weather organisation).

The winners of the white Christmas 2011 competition, will shortly be publicly announced on Exacta Weather and contacted accordingly. There was over 5000 entries in total!

James Madden

Published: 25th December 2011 (22:18) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

UK Winter Forecast 2011-12 (Final Outlook)

UK Winter Forecast 2011-12 (Final Outlook)


http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Some major indifferences amongst many forecasters about what this winter has in store for us at present.

The 2010/11 UK winter mean temperature (December, January, February) was -1.3c below average, with widespread heavy snowfall throughout November and December across many parts of the UK, as I originally forecast. Although my winter forecast also held true in terms of a below average winter as a whole for temperature, February actually saw a return to much milder conditions, that recorded a mean Central England Temperature (CET) anomaly of +2.6c. I did state in my January update that the stage the La Niña had reached, may influence some much needed and welcomed weather, which I originally underestimated in some of my much earlier forecasts. Even though I did forecast the return of La Niña conditions for 2011/12 earlier on in the year, a key aspect that I emphasised strongly on, was that the La Niña would not be as strong this time around.

I have fairly high confidence at this stage, that we will experience a much more prolonged period of increased jet-stream blocking in comparison to last year. This will bring frequent and widespread heavy snowfalls during November to January across many parts of the UK and Ireland, with below-average temperatures for the meteorological winter of 2011/12 as a whole. Of course there will be some moderation at times with geographical variations, but the overall theme for this winter will be very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK and Ireland. This is a logical conclusion based on the parameters I consider within my forecasts, any snowfall or temperature records broken within this defined time frame (November to February) or for the winter as a whole will be posted accordingly.

Earlier forecasts that offer specific locations are based on a different set of parameters and historical data, and are intended as a general insight. As to how a weather pattern can actually unfold a few days before is somewhat different, and I certainly can't claim to have the technology or finances to monitor these short range situations, as well as other leading and well funded organisations. I can however make the best of the resources I have available to me, with the integration of the major natural factors that I have studied in depth and consider within my forecasting analysis, to offer a fairly reasonable and reliable account of the weather patterns that are likely to unfold for a defined time period (several months in advance) and just as I have done over the past few years. Further updates will therefore follow and become more location and date specific as we head into and progress through winter. Here is what I initially issued on Youtube on the 4th Feb 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=push7IO4fCg&feature=related

Here is what I initially issued on 2^nd September 2010 (last year)

“I am currently predicting that the UK and Northern Europe will experience at the very least a winter similar to the last, or as I expect much worse with heavy snowfall. “This is my basis on the severity of the cold for this coming winter due to the lag effect that comes with some of these processes, which will in return drastically affect the summer and winter of the UK in 2011/12.”

Result (Winter 2010/11) = Coldest December in 100 years, widespread heavy snowfall in November and December, UK winter mean temperature was -1.3c below-average.

Result (Summer 2011) = Coldest UK summer in over two decades, largely above average rainfall in many places, torrential downpours and severe flooding events.

Result (Winter 2011/12) = PENDING...

October Snowfall

I stated on the 2^nd September 2011 update

“As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.”

October 2011 has seen some moderate to heavy snowfall in CERTAIN parts of the UK. The first snow of the season came in early October in upland Scotland, and although snow is certainly not unusual in these parts of the UK during October, this is why I included this within my autumn forecast/winter update. Further heavier falls of snow and drifts was also recorded later on within the month in Scotland, with the earliest snowfall in almost 50 years in Co Derry, Northern Ireland.

CAIRNGORM MOUNTAIN STAFF - OCTOBER 2011

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-15375136

CO DERRY, NORTHERN IRELAND - OCTOBER 2011

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1017/weather.html#video

Meteorological winter 2011/12

December 2011

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK.

January 2012

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK

February 2012

Below average temperatures and moderate to heavy snowfall is likely across parts of the UK

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 30th October 2011 (23:27) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Mild winter on the cards?

A mild winter on the cards?

This winter certainly won't be remembered or be authenticated as being mild, neither will it be dominated by periods of mild weather. Some moderation at times, but the overall theme for this winter will be very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK.

As in my last update on the 2^nd September 2011.

I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, and JANUARY at present.

THIS STILL STANDS!

I initially expect frequent and significant snowfalls across many northern regions and Scotland throughout this winter. Any earlier snowfall is likely to be more confined to northern and western parts of the UK, although large scale low pressure systems also offer the potential for significant snowfalls to many parts of the UK.

THIS STILL STANDS!

I also expect NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY, and FEBRUARY to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK, it is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken within this defined time frame.

THIS STILL STANDS!

This is a logical conclusion based on the parameters I consider within my forecasts, any snowfall or temperature records broken within this defined time frame (November to February) or for the winter as a whole will be posted accordingly.

November 2011

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in November: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, Midlands, East.

December 2011

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in December: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, Midlands, East.

January 2012

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in January: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire.

February 2012

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in February: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 19^th October 2011 (14:45) BST
Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

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