The mild weather that the models predicted for Christmas Day won over in the end, dashing any hopes of a white Christmas across many parts of the UK. I generally don't tend to pay much attention to what the models are saying when I issue my forecasts, which has proven successful for me within my past forecasts to date, when the models and others organisations have proved inaccurate. (See Accuracy Page Here)
However, my chosen methods of analysis have proven to be unsuccessful on this occasion. This forecasting error will also be reflected upon in the final winter outcome and placed on the Exacta Weather accuracy page too. I will however continue to use the same methodology that has served me pretty well to date. I will also incorporate any new aspects of relevance from my future research into my forecasts, of which I will always offer as a FREE long range weather forecast/forecast to the general public.
I have had a large quantity of emails asking me if the last two winters were simply one-offs, due to the milder conditions that we have been experiencing so far this winter?
Unfortunately the last two winters were not just one-off situations. Now although this statement will take some time to come to realisation for the warmists of this world, whilst they revel in their milder Christmas conditions. The next two to three decades will see the UK experience much more frequent and harsher winters. This is also one particular area that I have strongly emphasised on since 2009, and that I will also continue to emphasise on more in any of my future updates and findings.
As I have stated many times before, I never expected December to be the worst month of this winter in meteorological terms. I have also stated that I expect these conditions to prevail as we head into January and February.
January certainly looks promising for this at present, in terms of some true cold and snow across Scotland and northern regions of the UK. Although once again there is likely to be some periods of moderation at times, and this is most likely to be reflected in any areas further south.
February should prevail further in comparison to January, and this is when I feel we are likely to see the most severe part of this winter. A cold start to spring 2012 is also possible, with some especially heavy and widespread snowfalls across Britain and parts of Ireland.
As I also stated in my 2nd September 2011 update that we could expect “a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and WINTER.”
I also stated on the same date that “Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South.”
Although confidence is medium range with the factors in Italics at present, these could also prove to be a frequent feature at times within the remainder of winter, and this is why I included this within my update on the 2nd September 2011 (before any other forecaster or weather organisation).
The winners of the white Christmas 2011 competition, will shortly be publicly announced on Exacta Weather and contacted accordingly. There was over 5000 entries in total!
James Madden
Published: 25th December 2011 (22:18) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.
No comments:
Post a Comment