For the rest of winter, we are expecting the east Coast to end up above normal, temperature wise. We find this likely, as the fall was very warm, and trends in fall can move into winter, which has happened this season. Additionally, no blocking has been present. Blocking involves a high pressure over Greenland, which enables cold air to move into the Northeast and push the storm track south, so that the Northeast is in a prime spot for snowstorms. That is not happening this year. This is due to stratospheric warming, among other things. Usually, the stratosphere will warm in the early days of winter and start up the snowstorms. However, the stratosphere has not been warming until the last couple of days. This means that the pattern change will take at least 2 weeks to take effect. Essentially meaning at least 2 weeks until a major snowstorm.
The Ohio Valley southwest-ward into the Southern Plains will be experiencing wet conditions. Ohio has already broken all-time records for rainfall. This is expected to continue through the winter, and when the pattern change occurs, we will be seeing big snowstorms cut through the Ohio Valley. I am expecting several, if not many, 'major' snowstorms once the pattern changes for the Ohio Valley.
Down in the far Southern Plains we see an area of dry conditions expected. This is due to the La Nina, but has been helped by a +NAO/+AO.
Far out west, cooler than normal conditions are expected.
Notes about the indices:
-NAO should average above normal for the winter, but will dip negative at least once the rest of the winter. When it does dip into a good negative, I can see a big snow hit the Northeast.
-AO is in the same boat as the NAO.
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