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| 12z runs of both |
There are very substantial differences between the GFS ENS (Ensembles) and the GFS at hour 216, supposedly when a winter storm is to affect the Midwest. The ensembles have been saying that a piece of energy will move NE from Texas and affect the Midwest and Ohio Valley as shown on the right. The GFS OP (Operational, the actual thing, not the ensembles) prefers to send this piece of energy along the Gulf coast and northward, bombing out into a coastal storm on the East Coast.
We are leaning towards the GFS ENS right now, because the actual models do not fare well during a pattern change, which is currently starting. That said, it is best to go towards the ensembles.
Some notes on other 12z models as they come in...
12z NOGAPS is very similar to 12z GFS OP at hour 144, likely takes path shown on left image at the top.
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