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Saturday, December 10, 2011

December 20 Snow Event (Midwest Affected)

Confidence Level: Medium-High


12z GFS at Hour 240

12z ECMWF at Hour 240
The 12z ECMWF and 12z GFS appear to be in a good agreement over a low pressure system forecast to move over the Midwest, putting down snow in portions of the region. However, the ECMWF appears to be slightly more northward than the GFS, thus pushing snowfall higher north. The top image's thick blue line is the rain/snow line, meaning all precipitation above the blue line is theoretically all snow. The GFS has been shifting southward with this storm, and it appears the ECMWF has as well. If this trend continues, cities such as Chicago and Milwaukee may get snow when they were instead forecast to receive rain. Again, there are model differences that have to be worked out, but the general trend is shown well at this time.

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