1st December - The Meteorological Winter Starts Today 2011-12

1st December 2011

As we officially begin the meteorological winter today, I thought it would be a good opportunity to review the colourful headlines that have been floating around in the media over the past few months.

1. Many of you have sent this one to my inbox and asked for my opinion. No new Big Freeze, says Met Office (24^th November 2011)
   
   
   
   
   
   The headline above bears no relation to the kind of weather that I am currently expecting this winter, as I will explain below.
   
   
   2. Another headline that probably caught most peoples attention
   
   
   
   The headline read: BRITAIN FACES AN EARLY BIG FREEZE, SNOW ON THE WAY NEXT MONTH SAY FORECASTERS (20^th September 2011)
   
   
   The quote used from the Exacta Weather website within the article said: “I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in CERTAIN parts of the UK.”
   
   
   As I explained in the update on the 30^th October 2011 below, we did see some moderate to heavy snow in CERTAIN parts of the UK in October (Scotland and Northern Ireland – see pics below). It is certainly not unusual to see heavy snow in the Cairngorms in October, and this is why I included this within my autumn forecast. It is however unusual to see snow in Northern Ireland in October, as they recorded their earliest snowfall in nearly 50 years.
   
   
   No mention of WIDESPREAD heavy snow in October. (Please feel free to check any of my forecasts that are freely available within the archives section of Exacta Weather)
   
   
   3. Another headline that also probably caught peoples attention
      
      
      
      The headline read: Big Siberian Freeze to hit Britain, it will be here in weeks (2^nd November 2011)
      
      
      The quote used from the Exacta Weather website within the article said: James Madden, of Exacta Weather, warned the theme of this winter would be “very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK”. He said there would be “frequent and widespread heavy snowfalls during November to January across many parts of the UK and Ireland, with below-average temperatures”.
      
      
      No mention of SIBERIAN temperatures in weeks. (Please feel free to check any of my forecasts that are freely available to view within the archives section of Exacta Weather).
      
      
      Although we have not experienced the below-average temperatures and the snowfall has not been extensively widespread for November, I did explain in a prompt update on the 8^th November 2011 that there was a delay in some of these pattern changes, until the final third of November and much of December. My long term forecast for the winter in meteorological terms runs from 1^st December 2011 until the last day of February 2012, just as my correct summer forecast run from the 1^st June until the last day of August 2011, as this is the meteorological summer. (Both summer and winter forecasts were issued at the same time by myself earlier this year).
      
      
      December
      
      
      The recent newspaper headline above (24th November 2011) bears no relation to the kind of weather that I am currently expecting this winter, although it is important to remember that last December was the coldest in 100 years and one of the coldest months ever recorded in the UK. As in my last update on the 24^th November, I fully expect December as a whole to feature below-average temperatures, with some widespread and deep snow accumulations across many parts of the UK and Ireland, that will continue into January and February. As in many of my updates since earlier this year, the regions I expect to be worst hit throughout this winter and December are many northern regions, Scotland, and parts of Ireland. This does not mean that the south will not see any snowfall, as I have stated that I do expect widespread and heavy snowfalls across many parts of the UK at times throughout this winter, which does include December. I have also stated that there will also be some periods of moderation at times, and any areas further south are most likely to see the best of these conditions.
      
      
      This Weekend/Next Week
      
      
      Many parts of Scotland will see snow become more heavy and widespread as we progress into this weekend and next week. Parts of Northern England and Ireland are also likely to experience some moderate to heavy snow showers as we head into the latter part of the weekend and next week, with the increasing possibility of some snow to other parts of the country too.
      
      
      Here is what I originally forecast on the 8^th November 2011
      
      
      “This does not mean immediate snow and cold by any means, but it certainly improves the outlook for frequent cold and above normal snow across many parts of the UK, as we head into the final third of November and much of December. Some of these pattern changes are slightly later than anticipated, and even though it is difficult to believe with the unseasonably mild weather we have been experiencing (which I underestimated), I have very high confidence that we will shortly be entering a gradual cooling trend, that will bring frequent cold and widespread heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK”
      
      
      Here is what I originally forecast on the 24^th November 2011
      
      
      “Scotland will begin to see snowfall mainly across high ground as we head into this weekend. Snow will continue to affect Scotland and become more widespread within this region as we head into next week, with an increasing possibility of snow to lower parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the final few days of November and the first third of December”
      
      
      Any further updates will be posted accordingly, along with my outlook for January at a later date.
      
      
      James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
      http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html
      
      Published: 1st December 2011 (17:29) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.