We are seeing the ECMWF and GFS models pick up on some major stratospheric warming.
As a pre-note, the images we show you are the examples as close to the 100mb level that we could find. Keep in mind that levels above the 10mb images we are about to show will experience more significant warming than what we are showing. It's all about if the warming occurs closer to the 100mb level.
Is the Pattern Change right around the corner?
In the first image, we are seeing the analysis of the stratosphere from the ECMWF model. At this point, models do not matter as it is only an analysis. Notice how abundant the cold air is in dark blue as we see a deep low pressure system forming a deep vortex around the North Pole, keeping the cold air in. This technically is a signal of how strong the Arctic Oscillation is. When the AO is positive, there is a strong vortex holding in the cold air way up north in the North Pole, as we see in the analysis. The AO is in a positive phase right now, so we are apparently seeing the AO in action.
Skip ahead 10 days. The second image is for the North Pole at the same 10 millibar stratosphere level as was in the analysis, but 10 days out in the forecast. We now see a building ridge and warmer temperatures trying to force their way northward into the North Pole. It is being forced northward, rather than simply bumping around, as we can see the very tight isobars where the blue and light orange meet in the little crosshair symbol. The strong low pressure remains in place, but the coldest air and the low itself have been displaced more southward as a result of the pressing warmer temperatures. If these warmer temperatures are able to eke out their place in the North Pole and effectively kick out the deep vortex, we would see a negative AO and NAO, both of which would contribute to snow and cold over the East US. However, looking back a few days before this 10 day forecast, I found that these warmer temperatures are actually moving westward in a square dance-like routine. The warm air mass is weakening, but the deep cold is eroding as well. Notice the weak warming in the lower portion of the graphic. We find this weak warming area to also be moving in a circle, in similar fashion to how the main warming area is moving in a counter clockwise circle around the deep cold region.
What does this second, weaker warming area mean? If this second warming area comes to verify, it would be getting stronger as it moves counter clockwise. This would mean that there would be two warming regions attacking the deep low pressure and cold in the North Pole region. It does appear that these two warming regions are having an effect on the deep low. The question is will the low be displaced enough for the warming regions to take over control, effectively changing the pattern into a cold and snowy one? We aren't sure, but here's a reassuring piece: Notice the very weak, disorganized warming area on the upper part of the initial 10mb stratosphere analysis image. That warming area actually becomes much stronger and is the same warming section that we see in the 10 day forecast, with that warming section still in the upper-middle part of the image. The fact that the warming area forecasted in the 10 day forecast is currently present is reassuring news, as it signals that the piece required to 'damage' the cold regime in the North Pole is already there in the analysis.
Stay on the lookout, snow lovers. This could be the break you have been waiting for.
On a side note: Reputed meteorologist Tom Skilling in Chicago put out an article today, noting how at least a couple winters with comparably low snowfall to this year turned into above normal snowfall with a very back-loaded winter. This could mean that the back end of the winter will be 'vindication', so to speak, for many forecasters' forecasts (including ours).
Have a safe and happy holidays. We will not be publishing posts for much of Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
As a pre-note, the images we show you are the examples as close to the 100mb level that we could find. Keep in mind that levels above the 10mb images we are about to show will experience more significant warming than what we are showing. It's all about if the warming occurs closer to the 100mb level.
Is the Pattern Change right around the corner?
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| Initial 10 millibar Stratosphere Analysis |
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| Forecast 10 day temperatures at 10 millibar level in the Stratosphere. |
Skip ahead 10 days. The second image is for the North Pole at the same 10 millibar stratosphere level as was in the analysis, but 10 days out in the forecast. We now see a building ridge and warmer temperatures trying to force their way northward into the North Pole. It is being forced northward, rather than simply bumping around, as we can see the very tight isobars where the blue and light orange meet in the little crosshair symbol. The strong low pressure remains in place, but the coldest air and the low itself have been displaced more southward as a result of the pressing warmer temperatures. If these warmer temperatures are able to eke out their place in the North Pole and effectively kick out the deep vortex, we would see a negative AO and NAO, both of which would contribute to snow and cold over the East US. However, looking back a few days before this 10 day forecast, I found that these warmer temperatures are actually moving westward in a square dance-like routine. The warm air mass is weakening, but the deep cold is eroding as well. Notice the weak warming in the lower portion of the graphic. We find this weak warming area to also be moving in a circle, in similar fashion to how the main warming area is moving in a counter clockwise circle around the deep cold region.
What does this second, weaker warming area mean? If this second warming area comes to verify, it would be getting stronger as it moves counter clockwise. This would mean that there would be two warming regions attacking the deep low pressure and cold in the North Pole region. It does appear that these two warming regions are having an effect on the deep low. The question is will the low be displaced enough for the warming regions to take over control, effectively changing the pattern into a cold and snowy one? We aren't sure, but here's a reassuring piece: Notice the very weak, disorganized warming area on the upper part of the initial 10mb stratosphere analysis image. That warming area actually becomes much stronger and is the same warming section that we see in the 10 day forecast, with that warming section still in the upper-middle part of the image. The fact that the warming area forecasted in the 10 day forecast is currently present is reassuring news, as it signals that the piece required to 'damage' the cold regime in the North Pole is already there in the analysis.
Stay on the lookout, snow lovers. This could be the break you have been waiting for.
On a side note: Reputed meteorologist Tom Skilling in Chicago put out an article today, noting how at least a couple winters with comparably low snowfall to this year turned into above normal snowfall with a very back-loaded winter. This could mean that the back end of the winter will be 'vindication', so to speak, for many forecasters' forecasts (including ours).
Have a safe and happy holidays. We will not be publishing posts for much of Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
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