Remaining very cold and wintry into next week

Remaining very cold and wintry into next week

As we head into the new working week, things are set to remain very cold across most parts of the UK. Widespread and severe frosts will continue to create icy patches leading to some dangerous driving conditions on the roads.

After a generally fine day for most today, a band of rain will meet cold air through this evening and into tomorrow across parts of the UK. This will bring some considerable snow showers at times to parts of south west England and Wales, especially across higher ground and to some lower levels at times too. Some of these showers may even push as far in as the Midlands.

There will also be a continuation of sleet and snow showers across eastern parts throughout the working week, with some further showers of sleet and snow likely across some northern and western parts at times too.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 29th January 2012 (16:58) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

23rd January 2012 update

23rd January 2012

As we progress through this evening, it will turn cold across many parts of the UK. A band of wet weather will also result in some considerable snowfall across higher ground in Scotland and northern England, as we progress into tomorrow morning. This will also bring some snow showers at times to lower levels in these parts too. It will then start to turn briefly milder and much windier across many parts as we progress into Wednesday, with some especially heavy rain likely in northern parts of the UK. We will then see a return to some more wintry and colder weather, with the possibility of further snow showers across some northern and western parts of the UK, as we progress throughout Thursday and into Friday.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com
Published: 23^rd January 2012 (11:57) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Christmas Day Update + January and February 2012

The mild weather that the models predicted for Christmas Day won over in the end, dashing any hopes of a white Christmas across many parts of the UK. I generally don't tend to pay much attention to what the models are saying when I issue my forecasts, which has proven successful for me within my past forecasts to date, when the models and others organisations have proved inaccurate. (See Accuracy Page Here)

However, my chosen methods of analysis have proven to be unsuccessful on this occasion. This forecasting error will also be reflected upon in the final winter outcome and placed on the Exacta Weather accuracy page too. I will however continue to use the same methodology that has served me pretty well to date. I will also incorporate any new aspects of relevance from my future research into my forecasts, of which I will always offer as a FREE long range weather forecast/forecast to the general public.

I have had a large quantity of emails asking me if the last two winters were simply one-offs, due to the milder conditions that we have been experiencing so far this winter?

Unfortunately the last two winters were not just one-off situations. Now although this statement will take some time to come to realisation for the warmists of this world, whilst they revel in their milder Christmas conditions. The next two to three decades will see the UK experience much more frequent and harsher winters. This is also one particular area that I have strongly emphasised on since 2009, and that I will also continue to emphasise on more in any of my future updates and findings.

As I have stated many times before, I never expected December to be the worst month of this winter in meteorological terms. I have also stated that I expect these conditions to prevail as we head into January and February.

January certainly looks promising for this at present, in terms of some true cold and snow across Scotland and northern regions of the UK. Although once again there is likely to be some periods of moderation at times, and this is most likely to be reflected in any areas further south.

February should prevail further in comparison to January, and this is when I feel we are likely to see the most severe part of this winter. A cold start to spring 2012 is also possible, with some especially heavy and widespread snowfalls across Britain and parts of Ireland.

As I also stated in my 2^nd September 2011 update that we could expect “a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and WINTER.”

I also stated on the same date that “Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South.”

Although confidence is medium range with the factors in Italics at present, these could also prove to be a frequent feature at times within the remainder of winter, and this is why I included this within my update on the 2^nd September 2011 (before any other forecaster or weather organisation).

The winners of the white Christmas 2011 competition, will shortly be publicly announced on Exacta Weather and contacted accordingly. There was over 5000 entries in total!

James Madden

Published: 25th December 2011 (22:18) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Coldest UK summer (2011) in nearly two decades?

Coldest UK summer in nearly two decades?

2^nd September 2011

UK Autumn & Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012

Many parts of the UK and Ireland are coming to terms with what the media has been recently reporting as the coldest summer in nearly two decades, and as we originally forecast back in January and early last month in the link below.

http://www.strathspey-herald.co.uk/News/No-Indian-Summer-on-the-horizon-sorry-08082011.htm

The media have been reporting that this was coldest UK summer in 18 years on the basis of provisional Met Office data. I still need to review the HADCET data for previous summers, but since these reports was published the Central England Temperature (CET) has been adjusted from a mean of +0.1 to a final figure of -0.4 for August. The Met Office did correctly state in the link below that the media had taken this from figures based on August CET that was not yet complete.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2011/08/30/met-office-in-the-news-30-august-2011/

The Met Office also stated that the CET only represents a small part of the UK? Yet they fail to mention how valuable the CET dataset is to meteorologists and climatologists as the oldest recorded dataset in the world (over 350 years), and in terms of Northern Hemisphere temperatures. It will be interesting to see how their summer review that has not yet been updated for August in the link below reflects upon this, if at all.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2011/summer.html

June Mean CET = -0.4 below average

July Mean CET = -0.8 below average

August Mean CET = -0.4 below average

The summer also turned out to be wetter than average across the UK with dominant grey skies, and torrential downpours/flooding that became a frequent feature across many areas and all as we originally forecast. Parts of Scotland experienced their wettest 24 hours ever recorded, with severe flash flooding to the South of the UK since the last update.

Autumn 2011

The UK can expect a similar theme to continue as we head into autumn, with a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and winter. Although some places further South may see some spells of settled weather at times, the general theme for autumn as a whole looks largely wet and very windy with dominant grey skies. It will be generally unsettled and turn progressively colder with an early start to winter, especially more so in the regions of Scotland, Northern England, and Northern Ireland.

Winter 2011-12 Update

As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.

The most important factor within our weather forecasting calculations is solar activity and other major natural factors that it influences. Radiant energy from the sun is the primary influence on both the earth's ocean and atmosphere.

Low solar activity and ocean behaviour alter atmospheric circulation and block jet stream patterns that create enhanced moisture in terms of snowfall. The UK and Ireland is hit by prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions, as cold easterlies or north-easterlies develop. Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air over the UK.

Coupled with other in depth factors such as recent volcanic activity and changes to the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic drift that we consider, this does not bode well for the severity of the UK and Northern European winter of 2011-12. Frequent and prolonged cold spells with heavy dumps of snow from blizzard like conditions is likely across many parts of the UK. The areas we expect to be worse hit throughout include the vast majority of Scotland and the Scottish Highlands, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. We have particular concerns as to the huge implications that this may pose to the infrastructure of the UK and Ireland transportation systems/economy.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

www.ExactaWeather.com
Published: 2^nd September 2011 (15:57) BSTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.