Solar Activity, Sunspots and UK Summer Weather Forecast 2012As you may or may not be aware via my work and forecasts since 2009, I firmly believe that the UK has now entered a long term pattern of cooler wetter summers and more severe winters. Please feel free to examine any of my early
blog or
video entries. This does not necessarily mean that every summer or winter will follow this exact trend, and as a large part of this winter has also quite conclusively proven. However, it does mean that the vast majority of the summer and winters are likely to be this way. The main aim of Exacta Weather has always been to make as many people as possible aware of this transition in weather and climate over the coming years and decades.
This period of transition is largely due to major changes in solar activity levels and how this affects major natural factors here on earth. This transitional period is also part of a cyclical and predictable pattern that has occurred many times throughout our earth's history.
So let's take sunspots and their importance, for example. Sunspots are dark magnetic regions that are visible on the surface of the solar disc.
The amount of solar energy we receive from these sunspots, and the earth directed ejections have an important bearing on a number of major natural factors including: 1. The heating of the stratosphere 2. Atmospheric circulation 3. Ocean circulation 4. Cloud formation
Sunspots are also a good indicator of how magnetically active the sun is. The more magnetically active the sun is, the larger and more intense the sunspots are. Solar storms are also generally emitted from areas that surround these sunspots. However, a less magnetically active sun sets off a whole chain reaction of changes to a number of attributes that influence our climate and weather patterns. The sunspots and solar storms become less intense and infrequent when the sun is not as magnetically active. This also allows the cosmic ray flux to increase and hit earth more frequently. The increase in cosmic rays enhances low level cloud coverage and deflects heat back into space, something that occurred during the Maunder Minimum.
UV rays are also an equally important attribute when the sun is less magnetically active. Less UV rays are emitted from solar storms when there are less sunspots. A decrease in UV radiation and solar winds hitting the earth's upper atmosphere alter the properties of the stratosphere, atmospheric circulation and the distribution of storm tracks. The amount of solar radiation that we receive also has an important bearing on the heating of ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which is especially significant to the likes of the UK and Ireland. I have also extensively reported on all of these factors quite frequently over the past few years.
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FIG.1 - Near solar maximum in 2001 (NASA/SOHO)
FIG.2 - Galileo sunspots 1612 (Science Museum)
FIG.3 - 27th February 2012 (NASA/SOHO)
The point I am trying to illustrate here, is that we are now recording extra solar activity today that we weren't recording several years ago or through the lenses of Galileo's telescope (FIG 1 & 2). Just look at the magnitude of the sunspots from Galileo (FIG.2) 33 years before the Maunder Minimum in comparison to today's sun in (FIG.3). Galileo was simply recording these with his telescope at certain times of the day. Today, we are constantly recording solar storms and sunspots in 3D 'close up and from the side' since the NASA twin satellite launch in 2006. We are now also meant to be heading into a solar maximum and seeing some huge increases in solar activity according to many other sources.
However, I have reported many times that solar activity and sunspots are minuscule in comparison to what they should be right now, and in accordance to all NASA's predictions to date in recent years. I have also strongly emphasised that the low levels of solar activity that we have experienced in recent years, will also enhance periods of low solar activity in the present and future solar cycles. We are now facing such an extremely low period of solar activity over the coming years and decades, due to the strong correlation of historical evidence that I have analysed repeatedly. Furthermore, in some of my earlier posts that date back over the past three years, I have also reported and stressed my concerns that we are heading for a new Dalton/Maunder minimum like scenario. Some recent solar activity indices and the behaviour of the thermosphere could also be a strong indication that this is occurring much sooner than others sources are currently anticipating.
This will also not be counteracted by any so called effects of global warming or CO2 based on my own calculations, and the historical evidence that I have reviewed to date. In periods of high solar activity, up to double the amount of UV rays are emitted from stronger solar storms, which contribute towards the formation of ozone. This effectively traps heat radiation and acts as an insulator (warming) during periods of high solar activity.
Summer 2012 outlook
So in terms of this summer and based on the parameters that I consider, we are likely to see a continuation of this cooler and wetter trend for the summer as a whole. It would initially appear that another relatively grey and cool summer is on the cards for many. This does not mean that there will be no warm spells whatsoever throughout this summer. However, any warmer spells are likely to offer more in the way of some quite muggy and humid weather at times. I will also report on any viable warm periods of weather for up to two months in advance in my future forecast updates.
I also don't want to go as far as saying that the summer will be as cold as last year, but I also don't want to rule out a similar scenario unfolding either. If we were to experience another summer of similar magnitude to the latter, then some serious scientific acknowledgement will be required as to where our future climate is actually heading, especially over the coming years. The Milankovitch cycle strongly vindicates that ice will return to parts of the northern hemisphere, once the summers become cool enough. The Milankovitch cycle also predicted this pattern with astounding accuracy in the past, and it also places us at this point in the Milankovitch cycle today.
Conclusion
At the very best we are looking at an unsettled to mixed summer for this year. The summer is likely to be hampered by periods of relatively cool and very wet weather at times. As a whole the temperatures for summer are likely to be near or below average, dependent on which scenario unfolds out of the given two. Rainfall amounts are also likely to be near or above average for the summer as a whole. In terms of the 2012 Olympics and although it does become extremely difficult to forecast for a two-week period this far out in advance, they are also likely to be pretty mixed in terms of the primary location in London. However, as we progress through August and into September, there is the potential for some warm or very warm periods of weather at times.
A number of other weather events that have already occurred in other parts of the world this year, also appear to tie in quite well with a number of recent and historical weather observations that I have personally compiled. They also suggest another cool and possibly flood riddled summer. Now although I would prefer to report on the possibility of such events occurring nearer the time, my forecasting parameters suggest that the most prone time frame for any such flash flooding occurrences this summer are between the latter part of July and through to September.
No Meteorological or climate models have been used in the production of this long range forecast, or any of my long range forecasts that date back over the past three years. They are all made on a number of personal observations that also include: solar activity and historical weather patterns from my own unique collective data. This is why I am able to issue a forecast this far in advance without being limited by what the models are indicating. These are the same methods that have served me pretty well to date and will continue to do so in the future over computer models. This method of forecasting allows me to make a long term judgement on the factors that I consider to be the most important, and what I also consider to be the most reliable in the future for long term weather forecasting.
Disclaimer – If any aspect of my original long range forecast requires amendment, I will make an appropriate revision of this for up to two months in advance when possible. This is effectively still a long range forecast in itself, if you compare this to that of others. Please allow some slight deviations in exact timing of given scenarios, I.e. some months may slightly overlap or periods of certain weather types may be more prolonged/shorter than originally forecast, due to the nature of long range weather forecasting and how far ahead this forecast is being issued.
THE WINTER REVIEW WILL BE POSTED ON THE ACCURACY PAGE SHORTLY AFTER 1ST MARCH 2012.
James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
Published: Monday 27thFebruary 2012 Content copyright © 2010-2012. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.
