A return to winter weather this weekend

A return to winter weather this weekend

The way the weather has shaped up this week in terms of mildness, you could have been easily fooled into thinking that winter was over for this year. However, I did clearly state only last Saturday that:

Even though it is set to turn milder once again as we head into the start of next week, I still feel that the remainder of February and into the start of spring could still bring a number of notable wintry blasts of cold and snow to the UK that the professional meteorologists are possibly underestimating (and as I originally forecast).

I also stated:

Although the periods of moderation are likely to be less brief than I had anticipated in my original calculations for this period.

So as we head into this weekend, it is set to turn colder and fairly unsettled across most parts of the UK. A number of weather fronts look set to bring a wintry mix of rain, sleet, snow and strong winds to the UK. Saturday will see a wintry mix pushing its way eastwards across the UK, before clearing some parts of eastern England later. This could offer some potentially heavy falls of snow across higher ground as the front approaches these parts, with the possibility of snow to some lower levels too. Another wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow looks set to initially move in across parts of western and southern England throughout Sunday. Sunday will also remain relatively cold and unsettled, with the potential for some further wintry showers in the north too.

No severe weather warnings have been issued, and the current Met Office outlook for this weekend states two lines of text, which currently read:

Met Office Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

On Friday, mostly mild and dry, but cloudy. Conditions this weekend will then turn less mild and more unsettled, with some rain spreading eastwards.

Updated: 0314 on Wed 29 Feb 2012

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: Wednesday 29^thFebruary 2012 (13:57) GMT
Content copyright © 2010-2012. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

UK Winter Update 2011-2012

24th November 2011 - Update

As in my last update on the 8^th November, I stated that I was expecting some pattern changes that was slightly later than anticipated, as we head into the final third of November and most of December. The pattern that we have experienced for November to date, is not the pattern I am expecting for the meteorological winter of 2011-12 (December, January, February). I am however expecting a significant pattern change, that will result in a dominantly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the majority of the upcoming winter.

When I first issued my summer and winter forecast on Exacta Weather in late January/Youtube in early February, I stated that I had high confidence that the meteorological summer (June, July, August) was likely to be below-average in terms of temperature, with largely above average rainfall, based on the parameters I consider within my personal long range forecasting techniques.

The UK summer rainfall was 18% above normal according to Met Office statistics

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2011/summer.html

All three months also came in below-average (June, July, August) in terms of Central England Temperature (the oldest temperature dataset in the world – over 350 years old) and as I originally forecast. This factor/correct forecast also has an important bearing on my winter forecast (December, January, February) that was also issued at the same time as my summer forecast earlier this year.

June -0.4C

July -0.8C

August -0.4C

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

As I have stated many times throughout this year, I am expecting a more sustained blocking pattern in comparison to last year, that will bring frequent cold and above normal snow to many parts of the UK and Ireland this winter. It is therefore a logical conclusion that snowfall or temperature records could be broken within this defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole. I still expect many northern regions, Scotland, and parts of Ireland to experience the worst of these conditions.

Scotland will begin to see snowfall mainly across high ground as we head into this weekend. Snow will continue to affect Scotland and become more widespread within this region as we head into next week, with an increasing possibility of snow to lower parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the final few days of November and the first third of December. The remainder of December as a whole is likely to feature largely below-average temperatures, with some deep and widespread snow accumulations across many parts of the UK and Ireland, that will continue into January and February. Any required updates will be posted accordingly.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 24th November 2011 (09:37) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Will It Snow?

'WILL IT SNOW' – as promised

Despite the recent increase in solar activity and the large sunspots that are visible on the solar disk at present (See Fig.1), solar activity still remains very low in terms of UV radiation.

FIG.1 SOHO (2011)

I am fully expecting a significant and imminent pattern change, that will result in a dominantly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the upcoming winter. The negative NAO and AO will allow cold air and snow to plunge into Europe and the UK, and weaken the polar vortex (something to keep an important eye on, over the coming weeks). This does not mean immediate snow and cold by any means, but it certainly improves the outlook for frequent cold and above normal snow across many parts of the UK, as we head into the final third of November and much of December. Some of these pattern changes are slightly later than anticipated, and even though it is difficult to believe with the unseasonably mild weather we have been experiencing (which I underestimated), I have very high confidence that we will shortly be entering a gradual cooling trend, that will bring frequent cold and widespread heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK.

As I stated in my last update and many others, I fully expect the blocking to be more sustained this winter in comparison to the 2010/11 winter. It is therefore a logical conclusion that a more sustained blocking pattern, could result in temperature or snowfall records being broken within that defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole.

I really won't have any of this talk about a mild winter, will the people who feel the need to email me every hour of the day trying to convince me otherwise, please stop this?

One final note, I certainly never said anything about WIDESPREAD heavy snowfall in October, or Siberian temperatures to hit us in weeks. These are headlines to grab your attention, the quotes within the articles from myself read somewhat differently. Although I am very grateful to the Daily Express who have sufficiently raised enough awareness of another cold and snowy winter.

The final and big question on the cards is 'WILL IT SNOW' ?

My answer: YES, and it will be widespread across many parts of the UK.

You also have the defined time frame from myself, as you have done since very early this year.

No expensive computer models that don't work until a few weeks before or doctorate required!

UK Meteorological winter 2011/12

December 2011

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK.

January 2012

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK

February 2012

Below average temperatures and moderate to heavy snowfall is likely across parts/many parts of the UK

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com
 Published: 8th November 2011 (22:09) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

UK Winter Forecast 2011-12 (Final Outlook)

UK Winter Forecast 2011-12 (Final Outlook)


http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Some major indifferences amongst many forecasters about what this winter has in store for us at present.

The 2010/11 UK winter mean temperature (December, January, February) was -1.3c below average, with widespread heavy snowfall throughout November and December across many parts of the UK, as I originally forecast. Although my winter forecast also held true in terms of a below average winter as a whole for temperature, February actually saw a return to much milder conditions, that recorded a mean Central England Temperature (CET) anomaly of +2.6c. I did state in my January update that the stage the La Niña had reached, may influence some much needed and welcomed weather, which I originally underestimated in some of my much earlier forecasts. Even though I did forecast the return of La Niña conditions for 2011/12 earlier on in the year, a key aspect that I emphasised strongly on, was that the La Niña would not be as strong this time around.

I have fairly high confidence at this stage, that we will experience a much more prolonged period of increased jet-stream blocking in comparison to last year. This will bring frequent and widespread heavy snowfalls during November to January across many parts of the UK and Ireland, with below-average temperatures for the meteorological winter of 2011/12 as a whole. Of course there will be some moderation at times with geographical variations, but the overall theme for this winter will be very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK and Ireland. This is a logical conclusion based on the parameters I consider within my forecasts, any snowfall or temperature records broken within this defined time frame (November to February) or for the winter as a whole will be posted accordingly.

Earlier forecasts that offer specific locations are based on a different set of parameters and historical data, and are intended as a general insight. As to how a weather pattern can actually unfold a few days before is somewhat different, and I certainly can't claim to have the technology or finances to monitor these short range situations, as well as other leading and well funded organisations. I can however make the best of the resources I have available to me, with the integration of the major natural factors that I have studied in depth and consider within my forecasting analysis, to offer a fairly reasonable and reliable account of the weather patterns that are likely to unfold for a defined time period (several months in advance) and just as I have done over the past few years. Further updates will therefore follow and become more location and date specific as we head into and progress through winter. Here is what I initially issued on Youtube on the 4th Feb 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=push7IO4fCg&feature=related

Here is what I initially issued on 2^nd September 2010 (last year)

“I am currently predicting that the UK and Northern Europe will experience at the very least a winter similar to the last, or as I expect much worse with heavy snowfall. “This is my basis on the severity of the cold for this coming winter due to the lag effect that comes with some of these processes, which will in return drastically affect the summer and winter of the UK in 2011/12.”

Result (Winter 2010/11) = Coldest December in 100 years, widespread heavy snowfall in November and December, UK winter mean temperature was -1.3c below-average.

Result (Summer 2011) = Coldest UK summer in over two decades, largely above average rainfall in many places, torrential downpours and severe flooding events.

Result (Winter 2011/12) = PENDING...

October Snowfall

I stated on the 2^nd September 2011 update

“As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.”

October 2011 has seen some moderate to heavy snowfall in CERTAIN parts of the UK. The first snow of the season came in early October in upland Scotland, and although snow is certainly not unusual in these parts of the UK during October, this is why I included this within my autumn forecast/winter update. Further heavier falls of snow and drifts was also recorded later on within the month in Scotland, with the earliest snowfall in almost 50 years in Co Derry, Northern Ireland.

CAIRNGORM MOUNTAIN STAFF - OCTOBER 2011

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-15375136

CO DERRY, NORTHERN IRELAND - OCTOBER 2011

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1017/weather.html#video

Meteorological winter 2011/12

December 2011

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK.

January 2012

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK

February 2012

Below average temperatures and moderate to heavy snowfall is likely across parts of the UK

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 30th October 2011 (23:27) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.