UK Winter Update 2011-2012

24th November 2011 - Update

As in my last update on the 8^th November, I stated that I was expecting some pattern changes that was slightly later than anticipated, as we head into the final third of November and most of December. The pattern that we have experienced for November to date, is not the pattern I am expecting for the meteorological winter of 2011-12 (December, January, February). I am however expecting a significant pattern change, that will result in a dominantly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the majority of the upcoming winter.

When I first issued my summer and winter forecast on Exacta Weather in late January/Youtube in early February, I stated that I had high confidence that the meteorological summer (June, July, August) was likely to be below-average in terms of temperature, with largely above average rainfall, based on the parameters I consider within my personal long range forecasting techniques.

The UK summer rainfall was 18% above normal according to Met Office statistics

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2011/summer.html

All three months also came in below-average (June, July, August) in terms of Central England Temperature (the oldest temperature dataset in the world – over 350 years old) and as I originally forecast. This factor/correct forecast also has an important bearing on my winter forecast (December, January, February) that was also issued at the same time as my summer forecast earlier this year.

June -0.4C

July -0.8C

August -0.4C

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

As I have stated many times throughout this year, I am expecting a more sustained blocking pattern in comparison to last year, that will bring frequent cold and above normal snow to many parts of the UK and Ireland this winter. It is therefore a logical conclusion that snowfall or temperature records could be broken within this defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole. I still expect many northern regions, Scotland, and parts of Ireland to experience the worst of these conditions.

Scotland will begin to see snowfall mainly across high ground as we head into this weekend. Snow will continue to affect Scotland and become more widespread within this region as we head into next week, with an increasing possibility of snow to lower parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the final few days of November and the first third of December. The remainder of December as a whole is likely to feature largely below-average temperatures, with some deep and widespread snow accumulations across many parts of the UK and Ireland, that will continue into January and February. Any required updates will be posted accordingly.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 24th November 2011 (09:37) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

UK Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012

Duplicate from exactaweather.com (Published: 18th June 2011)

UK Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012

My UK long range winter weather forecast in Layman's terms and the reasoning behind my basis of a severe winter weather warning for 2011-2012.

Low Solar Activity

Periods of low solar activity at present and what we have seen in recent years influence the Earth's atmosphere by allowing the stratosphere to cool. This has a somewhat more profound effect over Northern Europe and the UK in terms of colder and snowier winters, due to jet stream patterns that block warm air from reaching us and create more moisture. Although sunspot activity has increased somewhat this year and there has been an increase in solar flare activity, the activity is minuscule in comparison to what it should be like during a solar maximum and in terms of frequency. Periods of low solar activity such as this have future repercussions of low solar activity in future cycles and produce extra cloud cover that reflects sunlight with a cooling influence on Earth. The lack of major sunspots and solar flares clearly indicate a slower conveyor belt within the sun. We are now in a very weak solar maximum and my observations indicate that the next solar cycle will also be weak.

La Niña

La Niña is the cooling of the Pacific Ocean near the equator and influences changes to atmospheric pressure and wind changes. In terms of the UK this makes the jet streams in the North Atlantic stronger and therefore offers more precipitation in the form of widespread heavy snowfall during below average temperatures as cold easterlies dominate. Recent indicators from the NOAA suggest neutral conditions for the season ahead, but it is also important to consider the current Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which switched to a cold phase during 2008. The PDO is a pattern of Pacific climate variability that switches phases and lasts for 20-30 years, resulting in stronger La Niña and weaker El Niño conditions that make the likelihood of La Niña conditions returning very high. However, any return to La Niña conditions this year will not be as strong or have the same influence on the much needed respite that we received in the latter part of last winter, in terms of the milder weather conditions from the high pressure systems it produced in the North Atlantic.

Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift

It is visible to see from recent NOAA satellite images that the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift has drastically altered within the last few years. The Gulf Stream is basically a huge volume of heated water that brings warmth to the UK in terms of a mild atmosphere. This softens the climate we experience for the latitude we lie on. For example let's take Newfoundland who lie on a similar latitude to the UK, yet they experience much harsher winters as they do not benefit from this valuable heat source.

Here is a quotation from Matthew Fontaine Maury who was nicknamed ”Father of Modern Oceanography” and "Scientist of the Seas".

"A SIMPLE calculation will show that the quantity of heat discharged over the Atlantic from the waters of the Gulf Stream in a winter's day would be sufficient to raise the whole column of atmosphere that rests upon France and the British Islands from the freezing point to summer heat" (Physical Geography of the Sea, 1855).

Volcanoes

The Icelandic volcanic eruptions Eyjaffjallajokull 2010 and Grimsvotn 2011 are important in terms of sunlight reflection over the Northern Hemisphere. The dust and ash particles can remain within the atmosphere for one to two years and reflect heat away from an already quiet sun. Converted sulfur dioxide emissions from volcanic eruptions can also cause sunlight reflection in the atmosphere. It is also important to consider the currently erupting Chaiten volcano in Chile as this may have the potential to cause long-term climatic effects globally.

Conclusion

I therefore expect the 2011-2012 winter to follow a similar pattern in terms of how November and December was in 2010 for the vast majority of this winter. It will be exceptionally cold and snowy with well below average temperatures. I fully expect to see records broken with the highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit. It is therefore vital to start preparing now in terms of high energy bills and raising awareness amongst the most vulnerable and elderly people of society.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

http://www.exactaweather.com/

Published: 18th June 2011 (21:29) BST

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

UK Summer Forecast 2011 - Update

Duplicate from Exactaweather.com 6th April 2011

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Press releases for 2011 UK Summer Forecast (Originally Released Jan 2011)

http://www.sundaysun.co.uk/news/north-east-news/2011/04/10/north-east-makes-the-most-of-the-lovely-weather-79310-28487833/

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/north-east-news/evening-chronicle-news/2011/04/11/north-east-sunseekers-flock-to-the-great-outdoors-72703-28498720/

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/north-east-news/evening-chronicle-news/2011/04/09/tyneside-is-in-for-a-scorcher-of-a-weekend-72703-28487268/

UK Summer and Winter Weather Forecast 2011-12

Duplicate from exactaweather.com (Published: 30th January 2011)

Well there has certainly been more precipitation in the form of widespread heavy snowfall and rainfall, with well below average temperatures as I originally forecast. I was also able to forecast this with confidence several months in advance, when other highly paid and respected meteorologists was forecasting a mild and dry winter.

November although not officially winter in terms of meteorology, saw widespread heavy snowfall and the coldest night on record in parts of the UK. The average UK temperature also never rose above freezing throughout December. Large icebergs was also a frequent sight in the Irish Sea and Morecambe Bay area towards the latter part of the month, in what turned out to be the coldest December in 100 years. January has been somewhat milder, and the stage the La Niña is at can sometimes influence this much needed and welcomed weather. However, it has certainly not been tropical by any means, more near average. The highlands of Scotland has still been particularly hard hit throughout January as originally forecast, and many other locations have still seen some sort of snowfall. It is also important to remember that winter runs until the 1st March in terms of meteorology, and it may still hold some more surprises for us yet in terms of my original forecast and into spring.

I also clearly stated ample times "the lag effect" of low solar activity and the shift of the gulf stream, in regards to the climate system and weather. Which leads me to my summer and winter outlook for 2011/2012. In regards to how I calculate solar activity and other natural factors, I am able to offer a UK Summer and Winter outlook for 2011-12, with high confidence at such an early stage that I am more than comfortable with. Other meteorologists will say this is impossible, they will however differ to myself in terms of the methods used, and the climate models that they choose to use. As I have stated before, I consider solar variability as the major cause of climate change. I sincerely hope that my early forecasts will stress the importance for the need to incorporate historical sunspot data into long term weather forecasting, and how it corresponds with the ocean.

It is a well known and documented fact that low solar activity is linked with periods of colder temperatures over Europe, which also interestingly includes a rise in wheat prices. Sunspot activity did increase somewhat last year, however in terms of rotation, positioning, and the solar flares produced, I am not convinced that much has changed. Another major cause for concern is the strength of the magnetic fields from these sunspots. Geomagnetic activity is minimal, and the current geomagnetic index is at an all time low. This will result in extra cloud cover and further affect temperatures, with future repurcussions of further prolonged periods of low solar activity, that could see sunspots vanish.

The fact also still remains that we should now be in a solar maximum. So let's take a look at how the sun should look during a solar maximum below. See Fig.1

FIG.1 SOHO/NASA, (2003)

So now let's take a look at the sun below in 2008. See Fig.2

FIG.2 SOHO/NASA, (2008)

Finally let's take a look at the sun below dated: 30th Jan 2011. See Fig.3
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
FIG.3 SOHO/NASA, (2011)

This extended period of low solar activity has now gone on for far too long, to be anywhere near normal.
 
I can also not stress the importance of the gulf stream shift enough than I already have, in terms of the amount of heat that it transfers to the UK. So let's now take a look at some comparable real time satellite data below, in relation to the horizontal current in 2009 and 2010. See Fig.4
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
FIG.4 NOAA, (2009 & 2010)

Now let's take a look at at the horizontal current data below dated: 30th Jan 2011. See Fig.5

FIG.5 NOAA, (2011)

This has also now gone on for far too long, to be anywhere near normal.

 
Summer 2011

Based on the factors I have covered, it would be adequate to suggest below average temperatures in terms of how I calculate solar activity into my forecasts. The UK will also begin to see the lag effect of the gulf stream shift to couple this. However, I also feel that the La Niña will largely influence the UK summer, in terms of how it will affect the jet stream.

WARNING!
This could lead to torrential downpours and severe flooding

So it looks like a summer of grey skies and damp weather, and it's probably safe to say that there will be no BBQ summer again this year.


Winter 2011-2012

Based on the natural factors that I have covered, it would also be adequate to suggest well below average temperatures in terms of how I calculate solar activity into my forecasts. The UK will also begin to see the dire lag effects of the gulf stream shift couple this, especially if nothing improves soon. The La Niña should also continue to establish itself further as expected, and once again in terms of how it will influence the jet stream. We could therefore see widespread heavy snowfall once again, for the first part of winter at the very least. This would result in the fourth bad winter in succession for the UK, and should prove to be the worst of them all.

WARNING!
Widespread heavy snowfall and well below average temperatures that should see records broken.

I will update the outlooks as and when required, in regards to any other natural factors or changes that may need consideration in my forecasts.

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.