24th November 2011 - Update
As in my last update on the 8th November, I stated that I was expecting some pattern changes that was slightly later than anticipated, as we head into the final third of November and most of December. The pattern that we have experienced for November to date, is not the pattern I am expecting for the meteorological winter of 2011-12 (December, January, February). I am however expecting a significant pattern change, that will result in a dominantly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the majority of the upcoming winter.
When I first issued my summer and winter forecast on Exacta Weather in late January/Youtube in early February, I stated that I had high confidence that the meteorological summer (June, July, August) was likely to be below-average in terms of temperature, with largely above average rainfall, based on the parameters I consider within my personal long range forecasting techniques.
The UK summer rainfall was 18% above normal according to Met Office statistics
All three months also came in below-average (June, July, August) in terms of Central England Temperature (the oldest temperature dataset in the world – over 350 years old) and as I originally forecast. This factor/correct forecast also has an important bearing on my winter forecast (December, January, February) that was also issued at the same time as my summer forecast earlier this year.
June -0.4C
July -0.8C
August -0.4C
As I have stated many times throughout this year, I am expecting a more sustained blocking pattern in comparison to last year, that will bring frequent cold and above normal snow to many parts of the UK and Ireland this winter. It is therefore a logical conclusion that snowfall or temperature records could be broken within this defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole. I still expect many northern regions, Scotland, and parts of Ireland to experience the worst of these conditions.
Scotland will begin to see snowfall mainly across high ground as we head into this weekend. Snow will continue to affect Scotland and become more widespread within this region as we head into next week, with an increasing possibility of snow to lower parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the final few days of November and the first third of December. The remainder of December as a whole is likely to feature largely below-average temperatures, with some deep and widespread snow accumulations across many parts of the UK and Ireland, that will continue into January and February. Any required updates will be posted accordingly.
James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
ExactaWeather.com
Published: 24th November 2011 (09:37) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.
Published: 24th November 2011 (09:37) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.
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