Will It Snow?

'WILL IT SNOW' – as promised

Despite the recent increase in solar activity and the large sunspots that are visible on the solar disk at present (See Fig.1), solar activity still remains very low in terms of UV radiation.

FIG.1 SOHO (2011)

I am fully expecting a significant and imminent pattern change, that will result in a dominantly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the upcoming winter. The negative NAO and AO will allow cold air and snow to plunge into Europe and the UK, and weaken the polar vortex (something to keep an important eye on, over the coming weeks). This does not mean immediate snow and cold by any means, but it certainly improves the outlook for frequent cold and above normal snow across many parts of the UK, as we head into the final third of November and much of December. Some of these pattern changes are slightly later than anticipated, and even though it is difficult to believe with the unseasonably mild weather we have been experiencing (which I underestimated), I have very high confidence that we will shortly be entering a gradual cooling trend, that will bring frequent cold and widespread heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK.

As I stated in my last update and many others, I fully expect the blocking to be more sustained this winter in comparison to the 2010/11 winter. It is therefore a logical conclusion that a more sustained blocking pattern, could result in temperature or snowfall records being broken within that defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole.

I really won't have any of this talk about a mild winter, will the people who feel the need to email me every hour of the day trying to convince me otherwise, please stop this?

One final note, I certainly never said anything about WIDESPREAD heavy snowfall in October, or Siberian temperatures to hit us in weeks. These are headlines to grab your attention, the quotes within the articles from myself read somewhat differently. Although I am very grateful to the Daily Express who have sufficiently raised enough awareness of another cold and snowy winter.

The final and big question on the cards is 'WILL IT SNOW' ?

My answer: YES, and it will be widespread across many parts of the UK.

You also have the defined time frame from myself, as you have done since very early this year.

No expensive computer models that don't work until a few weeks before or doctorate required!

UK Meteorological winter 2011/12

December 2011

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK.

January 2012

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK

February 2012

Below average temperatures and moderate to heavy snowfall is likely across parts/many parts of the UK

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

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 Published: 8th November 2011 (22:09) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.