Wintry further north and milder further south

Wintry further north and milder further south

Things are set to remain the same as we head into this weekend, with further wintry showers and cooler temperatures in the north, with milder and drier conditions further south. Friday day and into Friday night will feel chilly across northern parts of the UK, with further wintry showers falling as snow at times, across higher ground in parts of Scotland and northern England during today. It will be somewhat milder and windier in areas further south.

Saturday will also see wintry showers falling as snow across higher ground in northern parts of the UK, with some further showers of sleet and snow to some lower levels too. It will also be particularly windy in the far north, it will however remain relatively dry and mild for most areas further south.

Sunday and into Monday will see a somewhat chillier feel across most parts of the UK, and although areas further south are again likely to remain relatively dry, further wintry showers and cooler temperatures will continue across northern parts of the UK.

This is how I expect things to continue as we head into next week, with the possibility of some strong winds and snow showers to even lower levels than of late.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 20^th January 2012 (06:17) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Cold, Snow, and Winds – Exacta Weather Update

Cold, Snow, and Winds – Exacta Weather Update

15th January 2012

I stated three weeks ago that “January certainly looks promising for this at present, in terms of some true cold and snow across Scotland and northern regions of the UK. Although once again there is likely to be some periods of moderation at times, and this is most likely to be reflected in any areas further south.”

I also stated over two weeks ago that “This is currently still how I see things developing throughout January and into February at present. Although the worst of the strong winds, cold, and snow for January, is more likely to occur from around mid-month onwards.”

So we are now at mid-month point and it has recently turned much colder with widespread frosts across many parts of the UK over the last few nights. As we progress through Tuesday and into Wednesday day, things are set to turn slightly milder, with some wet and windy weather across many parts of the UK during Wednesday. However as we progress through Wednesday night and into Thursday, some much colder air will push its way back in across parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Northern England.

This colder air will bring wintry showers across these parts during Thursday and into Friday. Some of these showers will fall as snow and accumulate in places, especially across higher ground in Scotland and Northern Ireland. I am currently expecting this pattern of colder temperatures, to become the more dominant feature over the coming weeks across most parts of the UK. I am also expecting this colder weather to be accompanied by frequent wintry showers across northern parts of the UK, with some moderate to heavy falls of snow possible at times in these parts too.

I also stated in my last update and since early September 2011 that “Potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features, are still likely to be a frequent feature at times throughout this winter. However the low pressure systems will offer more in the potential of snowfall than of recently, which could also include areas further south too.”

I also stated over two weeks ago and 48 hours in advance that “Tuesday 3^rd January 2012 will see yet another area of low pressure arrive, bringing with it some strong winds and wet weather across many parts of the UK.”

Unfortunately two people died and many was injured as strong winds and rain battered many parts of the UK.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2081141/UK-severe-weather-warning-Britain-battered-105mph-gales-leave-2-dead.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jan/03/gales-sweep-uk-killing-two

The professional forecasters and their £30 million supercomputer also failed to issue a relevant weather warning about the impending havoc until afterwards. Met Office officials failed to upgrade from a 'be prepared warning', until 8:15am, when it was upgraded to 'red', which the Daily Mail and Guardian articles above fail to mention.

A Met Office representative then went on to say

“By Tuesday morning we updated the status to red to the areas most at risk when we had the information from overnight.” Met Office Representative

Forecast is grim for the Met Office, but are they at fault for missing Big Gail? (See Scotsman link below)

http://www.scotsman.com/scotland-on-sunday/the-week/andrew-eaton-lewis/forecast_is_grim_for_the_met_office_but_are_they_at_fault_for_missing_big_gail_1_2043601

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published P: 15th January 2012 (23:37) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

5th January 2012 - IMPORTANT UPDATE

5th January 2012

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jan/02/sleighbell-winter-climate-change-denial

The article above immediately starts out in defence of the Met Office and the hostility they received for their incorrect 2009 summer forecast.

The coming summer is 'odds on for a barbecue summer'

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/summer2009

The author then chooses to cleverly emphasise on quotes and newspaper headlines to make people question my credibility. However in a way I can understand this in regards to the newspaper headlines, and this is when I should be 100% clear about what actually happened with all them newspapers. The truth is that I did not write or have any influence on any of those newspaper headlines, I did not even speak to one newspaper editor or journalist, the quotes was simply taken from 'updates' on Exacta Weather, yet they appeared in almost every British national newspaper. Seem strange to anyone else? Imagine how I felt. Now at first I was overwhelmed and ecstatic at the national coverage and thought people would recite the quotations from within the article from myself and not the headlines that was used to sell the newspapers. So as you can see, I did not seek no publicity whatsoever as the author suggests. I also never made any financial gains from any of those newspaper headlines, although I am pretty certain that the newspapers did.

So let's review one of those articles from the Daily Mail on the 20th September 2011 (Britain to be hit by SNOW in October... Forecasters warn early winter is on way)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2039418/UK-weather-Snow-forecast-parts-Britain-early-October.html

It begins with

James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said: ‘I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK.

OK, so this was part of my autumn update and once again this was taken from the Exacta Weather website, I did not speak to any newspaper editor or journalist. We did also see some moderate to heavy snowfalls in CERTAIN parts of the UK during October and November, and this is why included this within my autumn update.

The Daily Mail article then continues with

'I expect December, January and February to experience below-average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfall occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.

In all fairness and as an honest forecaster, my forecast has been well off the mark to date, and there has since been some revisions to my forecast for the remainder of winter and November. This is a little unusual for myself, as this is the first time I have ever had to seriously amend any of my forecasts. In my 8th November 2011 update I promptly explained that there had been a delay in some of these pattern changes, and although the latter part of November and into early December turned out roughly as expected, December as a whole was inaccurate.

The Daily Mail article then continues with

‘Huge swirly low-pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air.’ He added that Scotland and the North would face the worst weather, including possible ‘blizzard-like conditions’.

Now although we have seen frequent low pressure systems, we have not seen the teleconnections enter a dominantly negative phase, as I expected. The NAO and AO were both dominantly negative during the summer months of 2011, and as I have stated before, this had an important bearing on my winter forecast. We have however seen the 'potentially damaging gale force winds' which I forecast before any other forecaster or weather organisation, and I firmly believe that this is due to some major 'long term' changes, in the major natural factors that I consider within my forecasts, and how they influence the 'long term' pattern of storm tracks.

I also stated in the same update in which all the newspapers extracted them quotes from that “The UK can expect a similar theme to continue as we head into autumn, with a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and winter” yet not one of them decided to use this. Had I of had any influence on them newspaper articles, then I can guarantee that I would have included this part of my forecast too.

The Daily Mail article then continues with a number of incorrect quotes from other forecasters, including the Met Office, and not one of them mentions anything about strong winds in winter:

Netweather forecaster Paul Michaelwaite has also predicted ‘widespread’ snowfall as early as November. He told the Daily Express: ‘Over the past four years November snow has not been rare at all, and with temperatures below the average there is the chance of some widespread falls.’

Meanwhile, The Met Office has said that below average temperatures in October mean there is a chance of upcoming overnight frosts, which would be seen predominantly in the Midlands and south-east.

And Weather Services International agreed that October, November and December would be hit with temperatures approximately two degrees lower than the average. WSI’s chief meteorologist, Dr Todd Crawford, told the Express: ‘We currently expect the coldest temperatures to be confined to western Europe.’

OK, so let's head back to the recent Guardian article. Now I don't mind taking some flak for getting a forecast incorrect, in fact I would probably say this is all part and parcel of weather forecasting. I however won't be made a scapegoat for the ineptness of the professional forecasters. I will also not be used as some pawn in a political and agenda driven article from a loyal warmist, because I dare to question the authors beliefs on man-made climate change. There is a lot that the author also conveniently fails to mention in the article. For example, he chooses to emphasise only on the 2009 BBQ summer that the Met Office forecast incorrectly, yet conveniently forgets to mention that this was a long line of recent blunders from them and their supercomputers in terms of long range forecasting. He also conveniently forgets to mention what I forecast when these mistakes was made.

Let's take last winter for example when the £33 million supercomputer foresaw a mild winter, yet we experienced the coldest December in 100 years with widespread heavy snowfall as forecast by myself. I even contacted the professionals and told them to issue a severe weather warning, yet no forthcoming warning was issued. Check out my previous forecasts and the tweet on my twitter page from the 31st August 2010 here.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8090325/Met-Office-data-suggests-mild-winter-but-dont-forget-last-year.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8596583/Met-Office-staff-awarded-1.5m-bonus-pot-despite-another-year-of-bungled-forecasts.html

Then there is the winter of 2009/10 when the professionals once again foresaw a mild winter, yet we experienced widespread heavy snowfall throughout December, January, and February. The UK winter mean temperature came in at -2.0C below-average and once again as forecast by myself. I wonder why the author chose not to mention any of this?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/6246570/Britain-will-have-mild-winter-if-you-believe-the-Met-Office.html

Another example that he uses to discredit another forecaster within the article is an incorrect 2011 summer forecast, yet he fails to mention that the professionals issued nothing, or that I forecast this period with 100% accuracy and before any other forecaster.

As it stands I did actually respond to the author of the article before it was submitted online, for which I have still not received a response either. Now this is actually starting to get a bit personal, but I was back home for the festive period, and although I made time for the usual updates and weather warnings, it was impossible to work my way through the 700+ emails that I had received in this time period until recently. I may well be an undergraduate with a computer, but my computer or my methods never cost £33 million of the tax-payers money, and it has proved far more accurate too.

In regards to the comment about an independent audit from the author of the article, well this is starting to get serious when a national newspaper is asking me questions like this. Anyone is free to view any of my past forecasts and pass their own judgement on what I have forecast, when the professionals and computer models have been consistently wrong. Please note that none of my posts are ever deleted and remain intact on my blog and youtube channel. I really can't help it, if I have only had positives to highlight upon in my lifespan as an amateur forecaster, and even before the recent article was published, I did actually state in an update on Christmas Day, that my recent forecast errors would also be highlighted on the Exacta Weather accuracy page too. The fact that my forecast has turned out wrong to date, proves to me that my methods of analysis are not foolproof, and the long term aim is to refine my methods to become even more accurate in the future. In fact, an article from early 2010 and from the same author titled Britain's cold snap does not prove climate science wrong also states that:

“This is called weather, believe it or not, it is not always predictable and it changes quite often” Hickman and Monbiot (2010)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/06/cold-snap-climate-sceptics?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487

It is also a major relief to know that no-one has had to really suffer this winter so far, unlike last year when there was many unnecessary deaths, as many was unprepared for what happened. Surely it is better that we are over-prepared for harsher winters, especially as I firmly believe that they will become more commonplace in our near future.

Now the author of the article has made a lot of incorrect assumptions in regards to myself, and maybe he has made these same assumptions in regards to future climate change too. I am not dependant on false science as an income stream, and I don't have a warmist driven agenda, which I actually happened to believe myself at one stage in my life. I am simply telling the truth and will continue to do so, it is up to yourself as to whether you choose to follow or believe what I have to say. One thing is certain though, I certainly won't try and make your mind up for you, unlike others.

Certain people are trying to use one incorrect forecast of mine to justify their own mistakes, and after reading that recent article and all the confusion of the last few months, I am really starting to wonder how long it will be before the Met Office becomes privatised and I become a direct competitor. Why? Because I issue long range forecasts and they don't, and the plan will be to justify this once the transition has taken place.

How ironic and fitting too, a Guardian article below from 2009 before the Conservatives come to power titled “Conservatives may privatise Met Office”.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/oct/18/conservatives-defence

Christmas Day Update + January and February 2012

The mild weather that the models predicted for Christmas Day won over in the end, dashing any hopes of a white Christmas across many parts of the UK. I generally don't tend to pay much attention to what the models are saying when I issue my forecasts, which has proven successful for me within my past forecasts to date, when the models and others organisations have proved inaccurate. (See Accuracy Page Here)

However, my chosen methods of analysis have proven to be unsuccessful on this occasion. This forecasting error will also be reflected upon in the final winter outcome and placed on the Exacta Weather accuracy page too. I will however continue to use the same methodology that has served me pretty well to date. I will also incorporate any new aspects of relevance from my future research into my forecasts, of which I will always offer as a FREE long range weather forecast/forecast to the general public.

I have had a large quantity of emails asking me if the last two winters were simply one-offs, due to the milder conditions that we have been experiencing so far this winter?

Unfortunately the last two winters were not just one-off situations. Now although this statement will take some time to come to realisation for the warmists of this world, whilst they revel in their milder Christmas conditions. The next two to three decades will see the UK experience much more frequent and harsher winters. This is also one particular area that I have strongly emphasised on since 2009, and that I will also continue to emphasise on more in any of my future updates and findings.

As I have stated many times before, I never expected December to be the worst month of this winter in meteorological terms. I have also stated that I expect these conditions to prevail as we head into January and February.

January certainly looks promising for this at present, in terms of some true cold and snow across Scotland and northern regions of the UK. Although once again there is likely to be some periods of moderation at times, and this is most likely to be reflected in any areas further south.

February should prevail further in comparison to January, and this is when I feel we are likely to see the most severe part of this winter. A cold start to spring 2012 is also possible, with some especially heavy and widespread snowfalls across Britain and parts of Ireland.

As I also stated in my 2^nd September 2011 update that we could expect “a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and WINTER.”

I also stated on the same date that “Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South.”

Although confidence is medium range with the factors in Italics at present, these could also prove to be a frequent feature at times within the remainder of winter, and this is why I included this within my update on the 2^nd September 2011 (before any other forecaster or weather organisation).

The winners of the white Christmas 2011 competition, will shortly be publicly announced on Exacta Weather and contacted accordingly. There was over 5000 entries in total!

James Madden

Published: 25th December 2011 (22:18) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

UK Winter Forecast 2011-12 (Final Outlook)

UK Winter Forecast 2011-12 (Final Outlook)


http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Some major indifferences amongst many forecasters about what this winter has in store for us at present.

The 2010/11 UK winter mean temperature (December, January, February) was -1.3c below average, with widespread heavy snowfall throughout November and December across many parts of the UK, as I originally forecast. Although my winter forecast also held true in terms of a below average winter as a whole for temperature, February actually saw a return to much milder conditions, that recorded a mean Central England Temperature (CET) anomaly of +2.6c. I did state in my January update that the stage the La Niña had reached, may influence some much needed and welcomed weather, which I originally underestimated in some of my much earlier forecasts. Even though I did forecast the return of La Niña conditions for 2011/12 earlier on in the year, a key aspect that I emphasised strongly on, was that the La Niña would not be as strong this time around.

I have fairly high confidence at this stage, that we will experience a much more prolonged period of increased jet-stream blocking in comparison to last year. This will bring frequent and widespread heavy snowfalls during November to January across many parts of the UK and Ireland, with below-average temperatures for the meteorological winter of 2011/12 as a whole. Of course there will be some moderation at times with geographical variations, but the overall theme for this winter will be very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK and Ireland. This is a logical conclusion based on the parameters I consider within my forecasts, any snowfall or temperature records broken within this defined time frame (November to February) or for the winter as a whole will be posted accordingly.

Earlier forecasts that offer specific locations are based on a different set of parameters and historical data, and are intended as a general insight. As to how a weather pattern can actually unfold a few days before is somewhat different, and I certainly can't claim to have the technology or finances to monitor these short range situations, as well as other leading and well funded organisations. I can however make the best of the resources I have available to me, with the integration of the major natural factors that I have studied in depth and consider within my forecasting analysis, to offer a fairly reasonable and reliable account of the weather patterns that are likely to unfold for a defined time period (several months in advance) and just as I have done over the past few years. Further updates will therefore follow and become more location and date specific as we head into and progress through winter. Here is what I initially issued on Youtube on the 4th Feb 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=push7IO4fCg&feature=related

Here is what I initially issued on 2^nd September 2010 (last year)

“I am currently predicting that the UK and Northern Europe will experience at the very least a winter similar to the last, or as I expect much worse with heavy snowfall. “This is my basis on the severity of the cold for this coming winter due to the lag effect that comes with some of these processes, which will in return drastically affect the summer and winter of the UK in 2011/12.”

Result (Winter 2010/11) = Coldest December in 100 years, widespread heavy snowfall in November and December, UK winter mean temperature was -1.3c below-average.

Result (Summer 2011) = Coldest UK summer in over two decades, largely above average rainfall in many places, torrential downpours and severe flooding events.

Result (Winter 2011/12) = PENDING...

October Snowfall

I stated on the 2^nd September 2011 update

“As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.”

October 2011 has seen some moderate to heavy snowfall in CERTAIN parts of the UK. The first snow of the season came in early October in upland Scotland, and although snow is certainly not unusual in these parts of the UK during October, this is why I included this within my autumn forecast/winter update. Further heavier falls of snow and drifts was also recorded later on within the month in Scotland, with the earliest snowfall in almost 50 years in Co Derry, Northern Ireland.

CAIRNGORM MOUNTAIN STAFF - OCTOBER 2011

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-15375136

CO DERRY, NORTHERN IRELAND - OCTOBER 2011

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1017/weather.html#video

Meteorological winter 2011/12

December 2011

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK.

January 2012

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK

February 2012

Below average temperatures and moderate to heavy snowfall is likely across parts of the UK

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 30th October 2011 (23:27) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

UK Winter Forecast 2011/2012 - Update

Duplicate from exactaweather.com (Published: 30th May 2011)

UK Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012

The importance of the Gulf Stream and thermohaline circulation (THC) are vital in regards to the upcoming 2011-2012 winter. I firstly issued my original warning on Exacta Weather over four months back in regards to the upcoming winter. I also clearly stated at the time “that the UK will begin to see the dire lag effects of the Gulf Stream, especially if nothing improves soon”. I first issued my concerns in regards to the gulf loop current and the functioning of the thermohaline circulation over 12 months back, along with the consequences of what might happen in regards to the Gulf Stream since 2008.

In terms of sea surface temperature in regards to the gulf stream, the diagram (FIG.1) below should be more comparable to the left hand side, than the right hand side at present.  Unfortunately the NOAA only allow you to run reports for a short time period now, hence this being the example I have used.

FIG.1 NOAA, (2011)

In terms of the surface horizontal current in regards to the gulf stream, the diagram (FIG.2) below should also be more comparable to the left hand side in 2009, than the right hand side at present.

FIG.2 NOAA, (2009 and 2011)

The gulf loop current is a key part of the thermohaline circulation that regulates world temperature. This has drastically altered the Gulf Stream and this is not the sort of system that can re-establish as rapidly as it declined. So, unless I am mistaken and the textbooks are wrong, the UK will without a doubt see progressively worsening winters due to its latitude, as will other European countries that benefit from this valuable heat source.

There are some recent suggestions that a neglected current known as the Agulhas Current may compensate for this valuable loss of heat, in the form of leakage. Unfortunately, there is very little or no evidence to confirm this, with no immediate signs of compensation in terms of the Gulf Stream. It is difficult to assume that this is the answer to our problems, especially with something that has been rarely studied and is very difficult to measure.

There are also suggestions that the Gulf Stream acts as a major steering mechanism for the jet stream. Although I do believe that it has some influence, a primary driver of the jet stream within my calculations is also solar activity.

We must also consider other major natural factors such as La Niña, and how this can influence the jet stream in terms of the UK and Europe. Recent NOAA predictions give a 50% chance that La Niña will have completely disappeared by June 2011. However, I am not convinced that it will completely disappear. Recent indicators may suggest neutral conditions for the season ahead, but it is also important to take forecast accuracy into consideration for this time of year and the current phase of PDO. The possibility of La Niña redeveloping will become clearer over the next few months.

Periods of low solar activity at present and what we have experienced in recent years, influence the Earth’s atmosphere by allowing it to cool, with a somewhat more profound effect over Northern Europe and the UK. Low solar activity also enhances cloud formation and therefore influences lower temperatures, with future repercussions of low solar activity in future cycles. This also has a major influence on the geomagnetic index, solar flux, and the behaviour of the jet stream.

In terms of sunspot activity, the diagram (FIG.3) below should be more comparable to the left hand side during a solar maximum in 2001, than the right hand side at present.

FIG.3 SOHO/NASA (2001 and 2011)

Although sunspot activity has increased and there are some visible sunspots, they really are minuscule in comparison to what they should be like during a solar maximum.

It is also important to consider the Icelandic volcanic eruptions Eyjafjallajökull and Grimsvotn, in terms of sunlight reflection over the Northern Hemisphere from an already quiet sun.

Based on the natural factors that I have covered and in terms of how I calculate solar activity into my forecasts, it would be adequate to suggest prolonged periods of well below average temperatures and widespread heavy snowfall throughout this winter. This will result in the fourth bad winter in succession for the UK, and will prove to be the worst of them all. I now fully expect records to be broken, with the Highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit. It is therefore vital to start preparing now in terms of high energy bills, and raised awareness amongst the elderly and most vulnerable people.

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.