Is the cold weather coming to an end? - Future climate

Is the cold weather coming to an end?

I stated many months ago in my original and revised winter forecast that February as a whole would experience well below-average temperatures and widespread heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK.

 I also stated in my February long range weather forecast issued on the 26th January 2012, that the period 15th-28th February is when:

15th - 28th February

1. “I expect things to significantly change to a more prolonged period of much colder and snowier weather across many parts of the UK. Any periods of moderation are likely to be very brief in nature and will be 'rapidly' replaced by colder and snowier conditions. Many northern and central parts of the UK will experience some frequent and heavy falls of snow at times within this period, and this does include lower levels in these parts too. Parts of southern and eastern England, Wales, and Northern Ireland can also expect some falls of snow and wintry showers within this time period too.”

2. “Temperatures as a whole for this period (February) and into the first week of March are likely to be well below-average. It is also likely that there will be some school closures and disruptions to public transport from snowfall within this time period too.”

So where is the final part of winter going?

We have currently seen widespread snowfall across many parts of the UK and disruption to public transport from snowfall, with well below-average temperatures throughout the first part of February. As it stands no major revisions are required for my original forecast for the period 15th-28th February.

I also made the following statements in late December and Early January:

1. “Since my early forecasts of last year, I expected the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to remain dominantly negative during the months of summer 2011 (June, July, August) and winter 2011/12 (December, January, February).”

2. “Now although this part of my forecast played out very accurately for my summer forecast, the AO and NAO indices have remained largely positive so far this winter. As I have stated many times before 'this factor has an important bearing on my winter forecast'. I really can't ignore the correlation between the two, as my methods strongly suggest that these teleconnections should already be negative, hence the lack of widespread snow and cold so far this winter.”

3. “However there are now some more prominent signs of a huge drop in the AO over the coming weeks, with a more neutral to negative state NAO also occurring. Now when this starts to happen the outlook for some true snow and cold rapidly improves, and confidence begins to grow with the statements I issued in late December.”

4. “February should prevail further in comparison to January, and this is when I feel we are likely to see the most severe part of this winter. A cold start to spring 2012 is also possible, with some especially heavy and widespread snowfalls across Britain and parts of Ireland.”

5. “Now if this pattern change does lead to either or both of these teleconnections becoming dominantly negative, as my winter forecast suggests, then we may still see some records being broken in terms of temperature and snowfall this winter. Another important aspect to consider here, is the length of time this cold Arctic air has been locked in place for. This is also another reason why I have never updated or stated otherwise, in regards to the possibility of records still being broken this winter.”

Since the above statements were made the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has since turned negative in recent weeks and affected many parts of Europe with extreme cold and snow. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has recently been hovering more towards a neutral-negative state, and is likely to become dominantly negative over the coming weeks. This would effectively allow high pressure to build towards Greenland and induces a shift in the jet stream, allowing cold Arctic air to flood in across Europe and the UK. With the current mean Central England Temperature (CET) at almost minus 5C below-average for February to date (the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world), and with the further cold periods and widespread snow that I am forecasting for the period 15th-28th February and into March, there is still every chance we could still see some records being toppled in regards to February and spring yet.

Summer forecast & our future climate

My summer forecast is a work in progress at present and will be published in due course. I am also currently working on a detailed update in regards to where I believe our future climate is heading. This will cover a number of key aspects that I have extensively researched over the past several years, including solar activity, ocean behaviour, and what I consider to be the major players in our future climate.

In the meantime please feel free to explore some of my earlier posts within my blog dating back over the last three years, and compare it to what is now being confirmed scientifically by others too.

(Click previous posts button at the bottom of each blog page to take you back over the last three years)

A UK short range web page and forecast archives section will be added to Exacta Weather over the next 24 hours

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: Wednesday 8th February 2012 (06:00) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2012. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Remaining very cold and wintry into next week

Remaining very cold and wintry into next week

As we head into the new working week, things are set to remain very cold across most parts of the UK. Widespread and severe frosts will continue to create icy patches leading to some dangerous driving conditions on the roads.

After a generally fine day for most today, a band of rain will meet cold air through this evening and into tomorrow across parts of the UK. This will bring some considerable snow showers at times to parts of south west England and Wales, especially across higher ground and to some lower levels at times too. Some of these showers may even push as far in as the Midlands.

There will also be a continuation of sleet and snow showers across eastern parts throughout the working week, with some further showers of sleet and snow likely across some northern and western parts at times too.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 29th January 2012 (16:58) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Turning colder again across most parts

Turning colder again across most parts

After a mild and windy day across the UK today, things are set to turn much colder again through the next few days and into this weekend, including areas further south too. As we progress through Wednesday night and into Thursday, there will be some wintry showers at times across higher ground in northern parts of the UK. Thursday day will see wintry showers become quite prominent across northern and western parts of the UK. Some of these wintry showers will fall as snow across higher ground in these parts, with the possibility of some snow showers to lower levels at times in these parts too.

Friday and into the weekend will see much clearer skies and remain cold across most parts. There will however be a continuation of wintry showers across some northern and western parts at times, especially across higher ground. Overnight frosts will also create icy patches throughout Friday and into this weekend, which could lead to some dangerous driving conditions at times.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 25th January 2012 (13:31) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Wintry further north and milder further south

Wintry further north and milder further south

Things are set to remain the same as we head into this weekend, with further wintry showers and cooler temperatures in the north, with milder and drier conditions further south. Friday day and into Friday night will feel chilly across northern parts of the UK, with further wintry showers falling as snow at times, across higher ground in parts of Scotland and northern England during today. It will be somewhat milder and windier in areas further south.

Saturday will also see wintry showers falling as snow across higher ground in northern parts of the UK, with some further showers of sleet and snow to some lower levels too. It will also be particularly windy in the far north, it will however remain relatively dry and mild for most areas further south.

Sunday and into Monday will see a somewhat chillier feel across most parts of the UK, and although areas further south are again likely to remain relatively dry, further wintry showers and cooler temperatures will continue across northern parts of the UK.

This is how I expect things to continue as we head into next week, with the possibility of some strong winds and snow showers to even lower levels than of late.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 20^th January 2012 (06:17) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Cold, Snow, and Winds – Exacta Weather Update

Cold, Snow, and Winds – Exacta Weather Update

15th January 2012

I stated three weeks ago that “January certainly looks promising for this at present, in terms of some true cold and snow across Scotland and northern regions of the UK. Although once again there is likely to be some periods of moderation at times, and this is most likely to be reflected in any areas further south.”

I also stated over two weeks ago that “This is currently still how I see things developing throughout January and into February at present. Although the worst of the strong winds, cold, and snow for January, is more likely to occur from around mid-month onwards.”

So we are now at mid-month point and it has recently turned much colder with widespread frosts across many parts of the UK over the last few nights. As we progress through Tuesday and into Wednesday day, things are set to turn slightly milder, with some wet and windy weather across many parts of the UK during Wednesday. However as we progress through Wednesday night and into Thursday, some much colder air will push its way back in across parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Northern England.

This colder air will bring wintry showers across these parts during Thursday and into Friday. Some of these showers will fall as snow and accumulate in places, especially across higher ground in Scotland and Northern Ireland. I am currently expecting this pattern of colder temperatures, to become the more dominant feature over the coming weeks across most parts of the UK. I am also expecting this colder weather to be accompanied by frequent wintry showers across northern parts of the UK, with some moderate to heavy falls of snow possible at times in these parts too.

I also stated in my last update and since early September 2011 that “Potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features, are still likely to be a frequent feature at times throughout this winter. However the low pressure systems will offer more in the potential of snowfall than of recently, which could also include areas further south too.”

I also stated over two weeks ago and 48 hours in advance that “Tuesday 3^rd January 2012 will see yet another area of low pressure arrive, bringing with it some strong winds and wet weather across many parts of the UK.”

Unfortunately two people died and many was injured as strong winds and rain battered many parts of the UK.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2081141/UK-severe-weather-warning-Britain-battered-105mph-gales-leave-2-dead.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jan/03/gales-sweep-uk-killing-two

The professional forecasters and their £30 million supercomputer also failed to issue a relevant weather warning about the impending havoc until afterwards. Met Office officials failed to upgrade from a 'be prepared warning', until 8:15am, when it was upgraded to 'red', which the Daily Mail and Guardian articles above fail to mention.

A Met Office representative then went on to say

“By Tuesday morning we updated the status to red to the areas most at risk when we had the information from overnight.” Met Office Representative

Forecast is grim for the Met Office, but are they at fault for missing Big Gail? (See Scotsman link below)

http://www.scotsman.com/scotland-on-sunday/the-week/andrew-eaton-lewis/forecast_is_grim_for_the_met_office_but_are_they_at_fault_for_missing_big_gail_1_2043601

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published P: 15th January 2012 (23:37) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.