Is the cold weather coming to an end?
I stated many months ago in my original and revised winter forecast that February as a whole would experience well below-average temperatures and widespread heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK.
I also stated in my February long range weather forecast issued on the 26th January 2012, that the period 15th-28th February is when:
15th - 28th February
1. “I expect things to significantly change to a more prolonged period of much colder and snowier weather across many parts of the UK. Any periods of moderation are likely to be very brief in nature and will be 'rapidly' replaced by colder and snowier conditions. Many northern and central parts of the UK will experience some frequent and heavy falls of snow at times within this period, and this does include lower levels in these parts too. Parts of southern and eastern England, Wales, and Northern Ireland can also expect some falls of snow and wintry showers within this time period too.”
2. “Temperatures as a whole for this period (February) and into the first week of March are likely to be well below-average. It is also likely that there will be some school closures and disruptions to public transport from snowfall within this time period too.”
So where is the final part of winter going?
We have currently seen widespread snowfall across many parts of the UK and disruption to public transport from snowfall, with well below-average temperatures throughout the first part of February. As it stands no major revisions are required for my original forecast for the period 15th-28th February.
I also made the following statements in late December and Early January:
1. “Since my early forecasts of last year, I expected the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to remain dominantly negative during the months of summer 2011 (June, July, August) and winter 2011/12 (December, January, February).”
2. “Now although this part of my forecast played out very accurately for my summer forecast, the AO and NAO indices have remained largely positive so far this winter. As I have stated many times before 'this factor has an important bearing on my winter forecast'. I really can't ignore the correlation between the two, as my methods strongly suggest that these teleconnections should already be negative, hence the lack of widespread snow and cold so far this winter.”
3. “However there are now some more prominent signs of a huge drop in the AO over the coming weeks, with a more neutral to negative state NAO also occurring. Now when this starts to happen the outlook for some true snow and cold rapidly improves, and confidence begins to grow with the statements I issued in late December.”
4. “February should prevail further in comparison to January, and this is when I feel we are likely to see the most severe part of this winter. A cold start to spring 2012 is also possible, with some especially heavy and widespread snowfalls across Britain and parts of Ireland.”
5. “Now if this pattern change does lead to either or both of these teleconnections becoming dominantly negative, as my winter forecast suggests, then we may still see some records being broken in terms of temperature and snowfall this winter. Another important aspect to consider here, is the length of time this cold Arctic air has been locked in place for. This is also another reason why I have never updated or stated otherwise, in regards to the possibility of records still being broken this winter.”
Since the above statements were made the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has since turned negative in recent weeks and affected many parts of Europe with extreme cold and snow. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has recently been hovering more towards a neutral-negative state, and is likely to become dominantly negative over the coming weeks. This would effectively allow high pressure to build towards Greenland and induces a shift in the jet stream, allowing cold Arctic air to flood in across Europe and the UK. With the current mean Central England Temperature (CET) at almost minus 5C below-average for February to date (the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world), and with the further cold periods and widespread snow that I am forecasting for the period 15th-28th February and into March, there is still every chance we could still see some records being toppled in regards to February and spring yet.
Summer forecast & our future climate
My summer forecast is a work in progress at present and will be published in due course. I am also currently working on a detailed update in regards to where I believe our future climate is heading. This will cover a number of key aspects that I have extensively researched over the past several years, including solar activity, ocean behaviour, and what I consider to be the major players in our future climate.
In the meantime please feel free to explore some of my earlier posts within my blog dating back over the last three years, and compare it to what is now being confirmed scientifically by others too.
(Click previous posts button at the bottom of each blog page to take you back over the last three years)
A UK short range web page and forecast archives section will be added to Exacta Weather over the next 24 hours
James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
ExactaWeather.com
Published: Wednesday 8th February 2012 (06:00) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2012. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.
