Severe Weather threat across East Central states of USA on Friday!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning: Moderate Risk of Severe Storms across East Central States of USA

Areas under Moderate Risk ( Storm Prediction Center); Mississippi,Alabama,Tennessee,Kentucky,Kentucky,Indiana,Ohio

Synopsis-

A classic upper level jet hovering across the Western USA with upper air jet over 120kt peak will amplify and eject into the plains from late tonight into tomorrow ( Friday) igniting a round of severe weather for much of the area beginning from tonight in Mid Mississippi region where non severe storms are expected. 

A broad surface low will develop across Mid Arkansas region into Missouri region on Friday morning period which will be a driving force for this weather pattern. The surface low is expected to deepen remarkably into the afternoon,evening hours on Friday even reaching to a powerful 992mb ! moving towards the Great Lakes area..

At the surface,a surface low level jet (LLJ) will start amplifying from Friday early morning bringing the required moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. As the incursion of moisture happens the dew points will soar from 60F-70F reaching peak in Souther states mostly in Mississippi and Alabama. The much of the breakdown will happen when a destabilized atmosphere of MLCAPE reaching unto 2000J/Kg. However if the NAM model is to be believed, there will be much more CAPE than expected reaching over 2000J/Kg unto 3000J/Kg in Central Tennessee and Southern and Central Kentucky

. Any storm that builds up in the region during afternoon will instantly go convective due to such high CAPE and favored upper air winds. The moisture also as per NAM seems to be in 70F ( Dewpoint) across Tennessee,Southern,Central Kentucky,North Eastern Mississippi,Northern and NW Alabama favoring for robust convection in the region!!

There is an argument regarding the Helicity at the ground level ( 0-1km). Earlier NAM models indicate that 200 m2 /s^ are expected in Mississippi region,Northern Tennessee at 18UTC,Friday but +3hrs indicate Helicity to be dominant across Central Tennessee and Kentucky,Southern Indiana,Southern Ohio where the ground EHI index of 4.0 across Central Kentucky,2-3 across Tennessee 

WHERE THERE IS A STRONG THREAT FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO THREAT SEEMS TO BE IN GREATER AMOUNT FOR REGIONS STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE, KENTUCKY AND LOWER INDIANA AND OHIO

METD WEATHER ESTIMATES DANGEROUS TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY ESPECIALLY AROUND PROMINENT CITIES LIKE NASHVILLE,TN AND LOUISVILLE. 

THREAT IS FOR TORNADO,LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS

PEOPLE MUST WATCH OUT AND FOLLOW THE SITUATION 

Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

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