August 10 Severe Weather Discussion

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

   

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/ERN OK EWD INTO

   THE SRN APPALACHIANS...

   

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   ONLY MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN THIS

   PERIOD...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SWRN STATES...VERY

   WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE NW...AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.

   

   AT THE SURFACE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO LIE NNW-SSE ALONG

   THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN MORE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/MID LOWER

   MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL COINCIDE WITH

   A ZONE OF CONVECTIVE/LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   

   ...SERN KS/ERN OK EWD INTO THE MID MS/TN VALLEYS...

   SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION IN TERMS OF

   DETAILS...AS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ONGOING FROM NEB SWD INTO OK WILL

   BE SHIFTING INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 

   PRESUMING AMPLE DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LINGERING

   CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD REINTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON -- AIDED

   BY MODERATE WLY/WNWLY FLOW ALOFT.  

   

   STORMS SHOULD SHIFT EWD/ESEWD WITH TIME...MOVING ACROSS THE

   MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY...BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE

   EVENING INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  IN THE MEAN TIME...THREATS FOR

   HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SLIGHT

   RISK AREA.

   

   ...HIGH PLAINS...

   ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE EVENING FROM

   SWRN MT SEWD/SWD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE REGION...AS

   AIRMASS BECOMES MODESTLY UNSTABLE IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME

   HEATING.  WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION/WEAK

   ROTATION...EXPECT STRONGER CELLS TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY

   WINDS AND HAIL.  ATTM...LIMITED COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED...WHICH

   PRECLUDES MORE THAN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   

   ...THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...

   COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH

   DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD MODEST AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...AND

   EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED

   THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS -- AIDED BY MODERATE

   FLOW ALOFT -- MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL UNTIL STORMS

   WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING.