It seems that the models forecasting for Irene are once again shifting west, towards a landfall possibly in the North Carolina/Virginia area. Let's take a look.
Here is the 12z consensus models- basically models which align into a formidable consensus point. We see the consensus keeping Irene just offshore of the East Coast and eventually impacting New England.
But here we have the new 18z consensus. Notice the sudden shift westward towards the North Carolina/Virginia region. Now, since it has only been one run of a westward shift, we are not going to answer any questions on if it will continue west. Again, it's only been one run. if the 0z models come out west again, I will get concerned. You can check out that update sometime around 9 pm CDT tonight if possible.
What we have above is the GFS model 'trends'. What that means, is that several previous tracks have been compiled into one image. The lightest blue lines indicate less recent model runs, while the nearly black line shows the most recent model run. We can see how the GFS dramatically changed course in its track for Irene on the 18z model. Now, the GFS is definitely a reliable model, adding SOME possibility the storm may go westward.
This is the consensus trends themselves. Again, lightest blue are less recent consensus results, while the darkest blue are most recent results. The consensus has shifted west as well. However, it is to be noted that the latest consensus and GFS both take sharper turns east when they are off the shores of the Carolinas.
We will keep you up to speed. Take heed of evacuation notices and suggestions from local authorities, which we will relay on our blog as well.
We will keep you up to speed. Take heed of evacuation notices and suggestions from local authorities, which we will relay on our blog as well.
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