I'm watching Irene at this time, and it looks like she is moving directly north, indicating she could be making the GFS forecast track (inland just west of OBX). I do believe her eye is being hit by some obstacles, but based on historical information and current imagery, I am anticipating Irene to have a window of opportunity to strengthen a bit in the next 24 hours. As soon as it makes landfall in NC, Irene should begin a weakening phase, hitting New York at a strong Category 1 hurricane at best.