METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
ENTIRE BAHAMAS SHALL WATCH OUT FOR AN INDIRECT TO DIRECT LANDFALL OF HURRICANE IRENE
STRONG WINDS,GALE,STORM SURGES,HEAVY RAINS SHALL CONTINUE WITH THE PASSING OF IRENE
THE BLOG WAS NOT UPDATED DUE TO BUSY SCHEDULE OF MINE
I CONDEMN THIS ABSENCE
A.DEORAS
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The Category 2 Hurricane Irene which had reached a Cat.2 status yesterday,weakened to Cat 1 and again at Cat 2 is churning in the Atlantic Ocean.
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC,24th August 2011...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
The satellite images as of now are confirming flaring convection at the centre as the hurricane is moving over a warm sea of SST of 28C in a region of favored ENE outflow of 20kt upper air divergence and a 30kt SE convergence at lower level.
The Total Precipitable Water ( TPW) shows presence of moist air mass in its vicinity thats fueling Irene.
The Max wind speed now is around is around 155km/hr and the movement is WNW at 15km/hr. The MSLP is 966mb.
Forecast ( 12hr 0700-1900hrs UT)
The present satellite images agree that previously stabilized eyewall is now weakening ( disappearing) and there doesn't appear any secondary eyewall.
This weakening is attributed to the landfall in the Turks and Calcos Is. ( the rainbands outer are passing through the islands).
Slight weakening shall persists with Irene as it passes through the islands.
Thus the 12hr tendancy of Irene remains a partial weakening and it might go again in the Cat 1 status as per Saffir Simpson Scale
USA Impact-
Long Range models are in agreement that Irene will travel to USA East coast by Thursday afternoon. There is a region of favored development ( strengthening) after Irene bypasses The Bahamas. Models from CIMSS indicate presence of some dry air likely to be East of the centre of Irene which might cause some weakening. However after Irene bypasses this dry air, it shall encounter warmer sea surface temperature and region of negligible wind shear for favored development
When it passes close to the USA East Coast, it shall continue to maintain its intensity
Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Atlantic Ocean
AMZ080-240930- SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS 1130 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011 ...HURRICANE WARNING... .TONIGHT AND WED...TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING NW AND N WITH HIGHEST WINDS INCREASING TO 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT WITHIN 40 NM N AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLES. HIGHEST SEAS 31 FT BUILDING TO 40 FT LATE WED. ELSEWHERE S OF 28N E OF 78W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. S OF 28N W OF 78W E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KT S OF 24N...BECOMING NE TO E WED AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S OF 27N DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT W OF BAHAMAS AND 6 TO 8 FT N OF BAHAMAS. N OF 28N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE WED. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT BUILDING 6 TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL LATE WED. NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND TSTMS IN BANDS WITHIN 420 NM OF IRENE. .WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N OF 22N W OF 70W TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHIFTING NW AND N. HIGHEST WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER W OF 70W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE E TO SE WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND TSTMS IN BANDS WITHIN 360 NM OF IRENE. .SAT...N OF 28N WINDS TO 33 KT...DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS TO 24 FT SUBSIDE TO 12 FT LATE. S OF 28N SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W AND 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE. .SUN...W OF 70W SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL EXCEPT 10 TO 11 FT FAR NE. E OF 70W S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
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