The 12z NAM model is predicting a fairly strong clipper system hitting central Wisconsin in the next couple days. The image above shows 3 hour snowfall accumulations at 9:00 PM CST tomorrow. Up to 3 inches of snow in 3 hours is pretty much an inch of snow per hour, which is actually a pretty good rate.
Total snow accumulations look to be up to 9 inches, with widespread amounts of 2 to 6 inches. Now, a local model that I glanced over did show snow accumulations of up to 4 inches coming in for the Chicago area.
It does indeed look like that the NAM model is too far north with this system after analyzing HPC-made forecasts.That said, you can see the correct forecast by taking the snowfall strip, moving it south into central Illinois and central Iowa, and deducting 1-2 inches from all amounts as the NAM typically overestimates snowfall amounts by a couple inches.
-Andrew
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