Turning briefly milder and windier

Turning briefly milder and windier

As we head into the new working week the weather is set to turn briefly milder and much windier across the UK over the coming days. Temperatures are also set to return to more near or slightly above average for this time of year. Most places will also become largely dry and relatively uneventful in terms of weather, although there could be the occasional rain shower about at times. However, I have stated on many occasions that any periods of moderation between the 15th-28th February, and into the first week of March are likely to be rapidly replaced by colder and snowier weather conditions across many parts of the UK.

I have also stated that “Many northern and central parts of the UK will experience some frequent and heavy falls of snow at times within this period, and this does include lower levels in these parts too. Parts of southern and eastern England, Wales, and Northern Ireland can also expect some falls of snow and wintry showers within this time period too.”

I still expect the remainder of this month to pan out like this at the very least, regardless of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) becoming dominantly negative over the coming weeks. The NAO becoming dominantly negative in the coming weeks will simply enhance the severity and extent of the cold weather over both the UK and Europe during this period and into spring.

Regardless of either scenario unfolding, there is still the prospect of February breaking records (one of the official months of winter and something that I was quoted as saying in almost every British national newspaper back in September/October 2011). The current mean Central England Temperature (CET) is at minus 4.5C below average for February to date, and with the further cold periods and snow that I am forecasting for the remainder of the month, this part of my original forecast still actually holds some clear validity.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

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