Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Forecast for Next 14 Days (Feb. 3 - Feb. 17)

Latest Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecast is unusually specific today, with the NCEP GFS Ensembles (GEFS) having a very tight forecast with all the members. That said, I took it upon myself to bring up the forecast.

We are currently in a moderate Phase 6 MJO. Phase 6 is typically associated with above normal precipitation in the South Plains into the Midwest and parts of the Ohio Valley. Temperature effects include much above normal temperatures in the East US, which we have been seeing with record highs even today.
The Forecast calls for the MJO to transition into a strong Phase 7 and sliding into a still strong Phase 8. With the GFS Ensembles, I feel pretty confident that this Phase 7 transition will occur. I am even optimistic that we will see a Phase 8 transition. Phase 8 involves a cool East US and a dry country overall.

The models are trending towards a Phase 7 transition but are not as strong with the Phase 7 nor as eager to go into a Phase 8 transition. That said, I think that the effects of Phase 7 MJO will become less dominant going into the Feb. 9-12 period.

Side note: For those who saw that I would not be posting, I decided against that decision as I was not thinking in the right mindset.