February 2-6 Significant Snowstorm Discussion (2/1/12)

12z GFS 84 hour Snowfall Forecast

12z NAM 84 hour Snowfall Forecast

I am looking at a significant snowstorm to impact the Plains and Midwest in the next several days as a strong storm system makes its way across the region.

Discussion. . .
Seeing potential for a significant snowstorm rise across the Plains today as the NAM/GFS models begin to agree on placement of snowfall. Totals are a different matter. Currently have NAM ordering over 15 inches of snow in Iowa, with the GFS maxing out at 13 inches. 
Typically find NAM to be overdone with snowfall totals in winter storm scenarios. This does not rule out the NAM's idea, however. . .as the amount of Gulf moisture the storm pulls in will be crucial. Storm system is expected to rapidly strengthen and likely increase the amount of moisture it pulls in during the strengthening. The exact point of this strengthening will be key, as that area will receive the heaviest snows.

12z suite of weather models appears to be solid with a track up until the Great Lakes. . .when the ever-changing GEM makes a move north rather than offshore, like the other models are predicting. 
For the next 84 hours, the ECMWF looks to be rock solid. The ECMWF and GFS combined appear to look like the big ones to trust. I find the ECMWF to be unusually good in it's previous 0z verification- 12z verification data has yet to be seen. Here's the verification from the 0z suite. Models closest to the bottom of the image are theoretically better at forecasting for that forecast cycle.

MY THOUGHTS and FORECAST
I am expecting to see snowfall totals approaching 1 foot in Iowa and Nebraska, with isolated totals over 1 foot. I am taking a somewhat conservative route with this storm as the details are not nailed in. (Just saw the 18z NAM data, it is around the same as my forecast below)

If anyone has observations from the storm, I would appreciate a shout out on our Facebook page, which is accessible on our right-hand sidebar.
Any questions may be asked below.


-Andrew