Turning briefly milder and windier

Turning briefly milder and windier

As we head into the new working week the weather is set to turn briefly milder and much windier across the UK over the coming days. Temperatures are also set to return to more near or slightly above average for this time of year. Most places will also become largely dry and relatively uneventful in terms of weather, although there could be the occasional rain shower about at times. However, I have stated on many occasions that any periods of moderation between the 15th-28th February, and into the first week of March are likely to be rapidly replaced by colder and snowier weather conditions across many parts of the UK.

I have also stated that “Many northern and central parts of the UK will experience some frequent and heavy falls of snow at times within this period, and this does include lower levels in these parts too. Parts of southern and eastern England, Wales, and Northern Ireland can also expect some falls of snow and wintry showers within this time period too.”

I still expect the remainder of this month to pan out like this at the very least, regardless of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) becoming dominantly negative over the coming weeks. The NAO becoming dominantly negative in the coming weeks will simply enhance the severity and extent of the cold weather over both the UK and Europe during this period and into spring.

Regardless of either scenario unfolding, there is still the prospect of February breaking records (one of the official months of winter and something that I was quoted as saying in almost every British national newspaper back in September/October 2011). The current mean Central England Temperature (CET) is at minus 4.5C below average for February to date, and with the further cold periods and snow that I am forecasting for the remainder of the month, this part of my original forecast still actually holds some clear validity.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

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Q & A: Gulf Stream / Thermohaline Circulation, Polar Shift, Solar Activity - Warnings 2011-2012

Q & A: Gulf Stream & Jet Stream, Pole Shift / Magnetic Reversal, Supermoon, Sunspot Activity

Duplicate from exactaweather.com (Published: 13th March 2011)

Q & A: Gulf Stream & Jet Stream, Pole Shift / Magnetic Reversal, Supermoon, Sunspot Activity

I have had a stream of similar questions in regards to

1). The gulf stream and jet stream being connected

2). Polar shift / Magnetic reversal

3). Supermoon

4). Rise in sunspot activity

The gulf stream and jet stream being connected

In Layman's terms, the position and strength of the jet streams help meteorologists to predict future weather. There is no real scientific evidence of a direct relationship between the gulf stream and jet stream. It is however plausible that the two could be indirectly connected in relation to the current polar shift, as they have both been behaving in a similar fashion in recent years.

Climate factors such as La Niña can also hugely influence the jet stream. In terms of the UK and Europe, the general trend is more precipitation due to a stronger jet stream in the North Atlantic. Recent NOAA predictions give a 50% chance that the La Niña will be all but gone by June 2011. I personally feel that this prediction is wrong and once again way underestimated, hence my future flood warnings. The gulf stream / thermohaline circulation have still offered no improvements, of which we will now begin to see the lag effect start to take place.

Polar shift / Magnetic reversal

Once again, there is no real scientific data to support a direct relationship between severe weather events and major natural disasters, in regards to a polar shift / magnetic reversal. However, in terms of how I personally interpret the scientific data available, it would be adequate to suggest that an accelerating polar shift is well underway. I personally feel that this will pose a huge threat in terms of further severe global weather events and huge natural disasters within the next 22 months, in relation to increased seismic and volcanic activity that others will hugely underestimate.

I have no doubt whatsoever that the polar shift and solar activity is related to the increase in seismic and volcanic activity, which is furthermore resulting in large earthquakes and devastating tsunamis, as we have just recently witnessed in Japan. Not only have we seen four of the largest earthquakes since 1900 in the last seven years, they also all ranked inside the ten largest. Two of which Chile (8.8) and Japan (8.9) occurred in the last 12 months.

Supermoon

As I have previously stated, I personally feel that the increase in Earth's seismic and volcanic activity must be directly linked with solar activity and polar shift. We are about to enter a phase over the coming weeks, that will see the moon at the closest distance from Earth, also known as supermoon. Once again, there is no real scientific data to support a direct relationship between severe weather events and major natural disasters in regards to a supermoon.

However, in terms of how I personally interpret this, it would be impossible to rule out a string of further natural disasters, volcanic eruptions, and major earthquakes over the coming weeks. Especially in regards to what we are currently seeing in Japan at present. In terms of global weather, it may also have the potential to cause abnormal storms around the world.

Rise in sunspot activity

The sun has recently seen a significant rise in sunspot activity. However, this does not justify titled articles I have seen such as "the sun has awoken". Observations over the coming months will be very interesting, especially as NASA scientist David Morrison has even stated that they are expecting a weak solar maximum in the video here. As I have stated before this will have future repercussions on further periods of low solar activity, and changes nothing in regards to my current forecasts and how I calculate solar activity into them.

It will also be interesting to see the future modeling of sunspot numbers, and whether this will make any difference to the solar flux / geomagnetic index.


And finally, I have a very interesting article titled "sir paul nurse abandons scientific priniciples on becoming president of royal society", by Mike Hersee the co-founder of Heal London. It also goes on to mention myself and Exacta Weather, and Piers Corbyn from Weather Action.

"It’s now been proven that on 25th October the Met office in the UK, led by AGW champion Robert Napier, confirmed a weather prediction for winter 2010/2011 that was hopelessly inaccurate in the extreme, and no significant correction was subsequently forthcoming. Long-range weather forecasters WeatherAction.com rely predominantly on solar and lunar factors as drivers of climatic conditions and On 1st December Piers Corbyn posted a video on youtube claiming that the period December to February would be “exceptionally cold and snowy, like hell frozen over at times, with much of England, Germany, Benelux and Northern France suffering one of the coldest winters for over 100 years, with two of the months December, January or February likely to be in the three coldest for 100 years”. Furthermore he said, “During this time, standard meteorology will consistently underestimate the lengths of these cold periods and will also grossly underestimate the severity of blizzards and snow deluges at times”. But even earlier than Weather Action, James Madden of Exacta Weather, AKA ukweathergeek, using similar models as Weather Action, posted a youtube video on 18th September – over a month earlier than the Met office who was confirming ‘no clear signals’ about the weather for the UK winter – explaining in detail why he expected the 2010/2011 winter to be more severe than 2009/2010, and why 2011/2012 was expected to be worse still".

It makes for a very interesting read and the actual programme itself is also very interesting. Special thanks to Mike Hersee.

Please consider a donation to the Japan Tsunami Appeal HERE


James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

Published: 13th March 2011 (17:12) GMT

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