3:21 PM CST
January 25, 2012
A level 2 tornado watch has been issued by The Weather Centre for Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas until 12:00 AM CST tonight.
Discussion. . .
A severe line of thunderstorms is currently moving into Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi at this time. Already see a few tornado warnings out, so issuance of a watch was not a debated topic. Storm system still looks to be positively tilted. . .so have not gone with a major level 3 tornado watch. However. . .due to 1km wind shear still above 40 knots in many areas, as well as a pretty high supercell index. . .have opted to go with a low-criteria Level 2 tornado watch.
Special algorithms have printed out an alarmingly high tornado potential for central Louisiana at this time. I am not surprised to find this, with EHI levels at 3- an uncommon occurrence with severe storms. Instability is not particularly impressive. . .with CAPE values maxed out at 2000 j/kg- a common threshold for severe storms. However, unstable Gulf moisture is wide open to this storm system, and it is being used as such.
Forecast models keep this storm positively tilted as it moves along the Gulf coast, lowering the risk of a tornado outbreak. A negatively tilted storm would be a much different story, and something we would not want to see.
For the rest of tonight. . .severe storms should continue to rumble along as radar is seeing them start to lift north and weaken. However, the main bowels of the storm should stick around and continue to scrape the Gulf coast states with strong storms.
Do not believe at this time that a severe thunderstorm watch is needed tonight. Also feel that this tornado watch will encompass the event until midnight tonight. If we feel a new watch is needed past midnight, we will make a new watch and automatically issue it at midnight tonight.
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