Tornado, Severe T-Storm Watches (Level 2) for Texas- Issued 1/25/12

These watches and all henceforth watches are not products of the Storm Prediction Center (unless noted) but are
an attempt to draw attention to a possible threat.

The Weather Centre
6:32 AM CST
January 25, 2012


A tornado watch (level 2) and a severe thunderstorm watch (level 2) have been issued for Texas. Both are valid until 6:00 PM CST Tonight.


Discussion. . . 
As anticipated. . . watches are needed this morning as the main severe weather threat breaks out. Now seeing at least one tornado warning present in the tornado watch box area at this time. With high EHI values. . . expect the threat to continue and strengthen through the morning hours. Instability is not particularly extreme, more modest on the order of 1000 j/kg with isolated 2000 j/kg. As daytime heating occurs. . . instability values should begin to rise and prompt stronger thunderstorms to develop. Wind shearing is at a good level this morning. . . with Bulk Shear 1 km up at 50 knots. Storm Relative Helicity 1km from surface is at 550 units in some places, whereas the beginning concern point is at around 200 units.
Want to focus main attention on tornado watch box this morning. . . as I feel main threat is within the box at this time. Due to high EHI and several elevated equations related to tornadoes. . .Have named this watch a Level 2 watch, indicating the likelihood of tornadoes. Today will not be a tornado outbreak, but may hold several funnel clouds and possibly some tornado touch downs if the right ingredients come together.
As for severe thunderstorm watch. . . have also labeled that watch as a Level 2 watch as well. Simply seeing the radar was enough to convince me that a watch was needed. . .possibly more for flooding and some windy conditions than anything. A weak tornado threat will also exist. . .as some helicity will be present in southern portions of the severe t-storm watch box.
Both watches will expire at 6:00 PM CST tonight. I do feel that there is a potential for a new watch going into tomorrow. . .as this will likely be a multi-day threat.