Lets face it- this winter has been horrible for snow lovers. It has made many, if not all, become ecstatic over 1 inch 'snowstorms'. Well here I stand today telling you that there is indeed a light at the end of the tunnel. And here's why:
Potential Vorticity (PV).
Potential vorticity, in a very simple nutshell, is increased in the presence of low pressure systems. In areas where there are ridges of high pressure, PV values are lower. The PV is a characterization to tell where the polar vortex (VP) is. So let's do a comparison using the ECMWF model.
Here's the 24 hour forecast from the ECMWF model.
We have PV values very strong over around Asia, indicative of strong storm systems. Something i've picked up on is that weather from around the world can help determine weather for the US. Basically, if Asia's getting a huge storm, and storms move from Asia across the Pacific into the US, it would be logical to think that the US would get a big storm. We will focus on that later. In the image above, we can see a polar vortex mainly displaced off into Asia as two ridges are pushing into the polar vortex to make it attempting to split. These two ridges are essentially keeping the polar vortex and associated potential vorticity values out in Asia, therefore displacing the cold and making the whole ordeal turbulent and henceforth causing a fiasco between the AO and NAO due to the displaced polar vortex which essentially makes up the AO.
Here's hour 240 of the ECMWF. It is long range, so use with caution. We can see a major storm system making its way onshore the Northwest CONUS (continental US) as the polar vortex is once again displaced and spread out across Asia and the US.
Here's the thing- the polar vortex is not nearly as strong as it was in December. The way it is misshapen and disfigured these days has led me to believe that the polar vortex is on its last breaths. Because it's not common to have a piece of the polar vortex in the Northwest US. Additionally, because it is so disfigured, it is not able to reconstruct itself due to intervening ridges and a general unfavorable scenario to see the vortex do so. If the polar vortex was fine, we would see something resembling a band of high potential vorticity levels around the North Pole (white circles in the images), with no orange in the US or Asia. If we see one more big Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event, I think there is a decent shot at seeing the polar vortex split off and die out in some aspects.
The GLAAM index is falling, as shown in today's post, indicating the opportunity for the pattern to shift is coming up very soon, if not already happening.
So here's my thoughts: I expect snowstorms to be on the rise and cold shots to become more common. I believe that the record breaking temperature days are behind us, and February is going to get a whole lot of revenge from December. Snowstorms will increase, particularly in the Midwest/Great Lakes and possibly the Northeast. Lake Effect Snow will be once again a commonplace occurrence.
Potential Vorticity (PV).
Potential vorticity, in a very simple nutshell, is increased in the presence of low pressure systems. In areas where there are ridges of high pressure, PV values are lower. The PV is a characterization to tell where the polar vortex (VP) is. So let's do a comparison using the ECMWF model.
Here's the 24 hour forecast from the ECMWF model.
Here's the thing- the polar vortex is not nearly as strong as it was in December. The way it is misshapen and disfigured these days has led me to believe that the polar vortex is on its last breaths. Because it's not common to have a piece of the polar vortex in the Northwest US. Additionally, because it is so disfigured, it is not able to reconstruct itself due to intervening ridges and a general unfavorable scenario to see the vortex do so. If the polar vortex was fine, we would see something resembling a band of high potential vorticity levels around the North Pole (white circles in the images), with no orange in the US or Asia. If we see one more big Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event, I think there is a decent shot at seeing the polar vortex split off and die out in some aspects.
The GLAAM index is falling, as shown in today's post, indicating the opportunity for the pattern to shift is coming up very soon, if not already happening.
So here's my thoughts: I expect snowstorms to be on the rise and cold shots to become more common. I believe that the record breaking temperature days are behind us, and February is going to get a whole lot of revenge from December. Snowstorms will increase, particularly in the Midwest/Great Lakes and possibly the Northeast. Lake Effect Snow will be once again a commonplace occurrence.
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