There are indications that winter weather may be on the horizon for good this time. Both the 12z ECMWF and GFS models are projecting the polar vortex to turn into a very small, pathetic, but still strong vortex that will drop into Canada. This vortex could easily moving towards the Northeast and wreck a massive wreck upon the region with a huge storm. Either way, the demise of the polar vortex may be at hand.
Other things we are seeing in these 8-10 day height anomalies are how there is a strong +PNA. This +PNA appears to be overwhelming the US weather. At the same time, the Alaskan Vortex looks to be shunted westward away from Alaska, where the +PNA ridge may be inclined to propagate towards Alaska. This remains to be seen but appears to be a valid possibility.
There is a -EPO spotted on the long range ECMWF but not really existent on the GFS.
While it is too late for stratospheric warming to have effects on us in the month of February, I am seeing a couple signs that another stratospheric warming event may be oncoming. An indicator of this is how both the height Waves 1 and 2 will be moving closer to each other in the 3rd image. The last time we saw them make contact, so to speak, was roughly around the time of the last sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). In the first image, it is the same 2 waves but this time with temperatures. We look to be seeing both waves 1 and 2 rocket to higher temperatures which is showing warming in the stratosphere. Again, February will not be impacted by this, but if a SSW does occur and this warming propagates down to the surface, March-April could be absolutely horrible for severe weather (abnormal severe weather).
Questions may be asked below.
-Andrew
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