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Monday, March 26, 2012

Severe Weather Discussion for Today, March 26

Overall Threat

Hail Risk

Tornado Threat

Damaging Wind Threat
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a risk for severe weather today, March 26, in the Northern Plains.

A negatively tilted storm system looks to eject into the North Plains today. As it does so, some thunderstorms are likely to develop in the midst of modest instability values around 1000 j/kg.  It looks like there will be ample hail opportunities with around 40 knots of veering wind from the surface to the mid levels of the atmosphere. This does indicate the likelihood of the stronger storms in this event to be hail producers.

Infrared imagery indicates a plume of clouds moving into the Northern Plains, where the storm system is expected to be. As this earlier cloud cover comes into the area, and with its proximity from the Gulf of Mexico, I find this severe threat to be rather low and it may be slightly over-calculated from my vantage point.


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